In a lot of ways, the early rounds of fantasy baseball drafts are the easy parts. These are all guys we’ve pored over all winter long, guys with loud tools and long track records. Plus, at that stage of the draft, you’re mostly looking to assemble the best players possible — sure, you’re paying attention to category balance, but for the most part, it’s talent acquisition time.
And then, inevitably, you get to round 15 or so, and you realize: You’re behind somewhere (or maybe multiple somewheres). But all of the biggest names have already been taken. How can you catch up in steals? How can you rescue your batting average? Never fear, we’re here to help. We’ve compiled a list of late hitter targets no matter what category you might need some help in, plus general guidance on what to look for when projecting a player in a certain category. (Alas, you won’t find any pitchers here: Every category aside from strikeouts is so difficult to project for starters that trying to peg, say, ERA or WHIP targets would be fruitless. You’re better off just trying to draft pitchers you think will be good, and luckily we’ve got just the list for the job.)
2024 fantasy baseball: Late category helpers
Runs
Brandon Nimmo, Mets (ADP: 188)
Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies (ADP: 193)
Steven Kwan, Guardians (ADP: 177)
Riley Greene, Tigers (ADP: 163)
Jarren Duran, Red Sox (ADP: 166)
If there’s a common denominator here, it’s that all these guys are set to hit at or near the tops of batting orders that will likely be better than their reputation would suggest. Vibes are pretty bad around the Mets and Red Sox right now, but they both have talent in their lineups and will score runs — especially Boston, given their home park. The Tigers are set to take a big step forward if Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith and Parker Meadows improve, and the Rockies are … well, they play half their games at Coors Field. Even better, all of these guys save Kwan figure to give you decent value across multiple categories.
Home runs
Jorge Soler, Giants (ADP: 154)
Jake Burger, Marlins (ADP: 151)
Willy Adames, Brewers (ADP: 183)
Rhys Hoskins, Brewers (ADP: 192)
Matt Chapman, Giants (ADP: 269)
Christopher Morel, Cubs (ADP: 195)
Nolan Gorman, Cardinals (ADP: 187)
Jorge Polanco, Mariners (ADP: 253)
Byron Buxton, Twins (ADP: 248)
If there’s a single category I’m confident in targeting toward the end of drafts, it’s power — granted, most of it will come without much of a boost in speed or batting average, but the great thing about home runs is that they also lift runs and RBI. Find a 25-homer hitter, and they’re a good bet to be at least solid in 60% of standard 5×5 categories. Soler has easy power no matter the park, and he’ll be in the middle of that lineup every day out of necessity. Burger is one of the game’s most underrated power bats and tore it up in Miami down the stretch. People are sleeping on both Hoskins and Chapman; the former is fully recovered from his knee injury and moves to a great park with wide-open playing time, while the latter is always on the field for his defense and has upside if he gets back to pulling his fly balls the way he did just a couple of years ago. Morel seems to have an inside track on regular playing time in Chicago and is less of a fluke as a hitter than people think. Gorman was quietly awesome — if streaky — for St. Louis, while Polanco and Buxton could produce big value at these prices if they stay healthy.
RBI
Willy Adames, Brewers (ADP: 183)
Rhys Hoskins, Brewers (ADP: 192)
Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals (ADP: 174)
Eugenio Suarez, Diamondbacks (ADP: 267)
Jose Abreu, Astros (ADP: 254)
Jeimer Candelario, Reds (ADP: 212)
Andrew Vaughn, White Sox (ADP: 226)
Here, the question shifts back to one of lineup position: Namely, are you going to be getting somewhere between third and sixth? The answer is yes with just about all of these guys, and more toward the former than the latter. Of course, there are varying profiles here — I’m not bullish at all on Abreu as he continues to age, and Vaughn probably just is what he is at this point. Pasquantino and Candelario in particular, however, offer some real upside at their current price.
Stolen bases
Jarren Duran, Red Sox (ADP: 166)
Starling Marte, Mets (ADP: 216)
Trevor Story, Red Sox (ADP: 177)
Maikel Garcia, Royals (ADP: 225)
Willi Castro, Twins (ADP: 293)
Jose Siri, Rays (ADP: 289)
Will Benson, Reds (ADP: 291)
The main difference with the new rule changes is that it’s possible to find viable stolen-base sources late that won’t totally tank you everywhere else. Duran is among my favorite sleepers this year, included twice on this list as the likely leadoff man in Boston who has genuine 35-40 steal upside. Garcia and Castro have easy 30-steal speed and should play enough to use it, while Story and Siri are sneaky power/speed combos late if you can stomach the dip in batting average (and Story’s healthy concerns).
Batting average
Steven Kwan, Guardians (ADP: 177)
Jung Hoo Lee, Giants (ADP: 214)
Masataka Yoshida, Red Sox (ADP: 178)
Vaughn Grissom, Red Sox (ADP: 298)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks (ADP: 220)
Batting average is the rare category at which you find genuinely good projections later in the draft — you can find a .280 hitter more easily than you can find 20 steals or 25 homers. The catch, of course, is that it often comes at the cost of everything else; Lee has Kwan’s meager upside with plenty of risk as he transitions to the States, while Yoshida and Grissom both don’t have much power to speak of. Gurriel Jr. might be my favorite here, a quietly productive member of a solid Diamondbacks lineup.
