After being drafted No. 1 overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in last year’s draft and making it all the way to Double-A before season’s end, righty Paul Skenes seemed to be knocking on the door of the Majors. He still very well might make his MLB debut this year, but it won’t come right away: In a meeting with reporters on Tuesday, Pirates GM Ben Cherington said that Skenes won’t make the team’s Opening Day roster.
While Skenes is a big name and among the top pitching prospects in the game — MLB Pipeline currently has him at third overall, behind only Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio — this isn’t a total shock. Skenes oozes talent, with a triple-digit fastball and a truly wipeout slider. But he also threw just 6.2 innings of pro ball after the draft last year, and while he struck out 10, he also gave up four runs on four hits with two walks in 2.2 innings at Double-A to end the season. He’s still just 21, and for as incredible as he was as a junior at LSU — 1.69 ERA, 209 Ks in just 122.2 innings — that’s only one year of elite production.
It’s perfectly plausible that he’s still got some kinks to iron out, is what we’re saying, and a little more seasoning in the high Minors isn’t liable to hurt much — and could be the best thing for both he and a Pirates team that still feels about a year away from real contention. But now that we have some clarity as to what the plan is for Skenes, at least to start the year, the question becomes: How should we approach the righty in fantasy drafts?
Skenes’ ADP is currently around 250 overall — not a huge investment, but a meaningful one all the same. In leagues that have Minor League slots, he makes sense as a late draft and stash given his upside and his proximity to the Minors. But in leagues that don’t, he’s probably best left on the waiver wire until he gets called up (or at least until he starts heating up in the Minors and a decision seems imminent). Heck, even in leagues that only have one such roster slot, you could make an argument that you’re better off using it on a hitter with five-category potential — someone like, say, Nationals outfielder James Wood. Skenes is undoubtedly a very good pitching prospect, but there are also questions about how he’ll translate at the highest level: Just how good is that heater given its mediocre shape, and will his changeup develop into a strong third offering? There’s a chance he turns into Spencer Strider, but there’s also a chance he’s something like Hunter Greene, with big upside but more bumps in the road than you’d expect. If you have the flexibility and the starters in front of him to take a very late-round flier, go for it, but there may be more growing pains than you may think given his college performance and draft pedigree.
