On Tuesday, I broke down the two systems below. We’re sticking with those systems throughout the week, so you’ll find some of the same information if you read the article earlier in the week. However, this update includes picks for Friday’s slate and additional info that’s specific to those games.
Also, you’ll find the record on how my plays have performed since Tuesday, as well as the systems on the whole.
The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Road underdogs ATS after not playing the previous day
This hasn’t been the hottest system out of the break, but it’s been solid. What’s more important is this play is 13-10 (56.52%) coming out of the break and that’s not where this play starts and ends. Over the last 30 days, this play is 47-34 (58.02%).
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE FEBRUARY 27
System – 7-7
My Picks – 0-1
SYSTEM PICK FOR MARCH 1
Four games fit this system on Friday:
- DAL @ BOS
- POR @ MEM
- IND @ NOP
- SAC @ MIN
The options I like most are IND and SAC. With De’Aaron Fox being questionable after missing Wednesday’s game, the Pacers get the edge as my preferred play.
The Pacers just took it to the Pelicans on Wednesday. Yes, New Orleans was on the second leg of a back-to-back, but Indy was also playing its third game in four days. Now the Pelicans are in the setting the Pacers were, while Indy is at least a bit more rested.
On top of that, with the Pacers coming off a win, they’re in a preferred setting. When playing as an underdog following a win, the Pacers are 11-5 ATS.
PICK: IND +5.5
SYSTEM: Under on total when road favorites are coming off a loss
This play has gotten a nice boost out of the break. Over the last 30 days, the under is 19-11-1 in this setting after going 5-0 after the All-Star Game.
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE FEBRUARY 27
System – 2-1
My Picks – 1-0
SYSTEM PICK FOR MARCH 1
There’s only one game that fits this system on Friday: CLE @ DET.
Cleveland’s inability to close on Wednesday vs. the Bulls hurt our under play, but the fact that game was still on pace for an under hit in regulation only makes me feel better about this play.
The Pistons have seen the over hit more often than most (30-26-2). The Cavs have seen the under hit at a similar rate (31-26-1), and they’ve unsurprisingly controlled the tempo vs. Detroit. In the prior three meetings between these two teams, the under has gone 2-0-1. Also, the Pistons finished February 8-3 to the under while Cleveland went 8-5 to the under (would’ve been 9-4 if not for the aforementioned OT game).
PICK: CLE-DET under 221.5
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
