Spring training is upon is, and that means so too is contract extension season. MLB teams generally use November, December, and January to improve their rosters, and then, once free agency has largely died down, they spend February and March attempting to lock up key members of their existing core — with an eye toward getting something done before the regular season gets rolling.
Last spring saw Corbin Carroll (eight years, $111 million), Andrés Giménez (seven years, $106.5 million), Cristian Javier (five years, $64 million), Manny Machado (11 years, $350 million) and Keibert Ruiz (eight years, $50 million) all sign long-term contracts. This year has already given us a megadeal for young Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. and a five-year extension that will keep Jose Altuve an Astro for life. Of course, things don’t end so happily for everybody: As things stand, two of the biggest names in the sport — Juan Soto and Pete Alonso — appear destined to hit the free market next winter. But, if history is any guide, plenty of others are bound to cash in this spring. Who might those players be? Let’s run down the 10 most notable candidates, listed alphabetically.
1. RHP Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
Among the smallest-market teams in the sport, the Guardians have been very active in locking up their young talent dating all the way back to those great teams of the late 90s and early 00s. Bibee, last year’s AL Rookie of the Year runner-up after posting a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts, figures to be next in line: A fifth-round pick back in 2021, the righty emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the game in 2023, and profiles as the sort of command-oriented college starter who blossoms within the organization — just as the last guy who fit that bill, Shane Bieber, gets set to hit free agency.
2. C William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are clearly a team in transition with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and manager Craig Counsell moving on. But the team’s new core — righty Freddy Peralta, outfielders Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick, infielders Tyler Black and Joey Ortiz — is already emerging, and locking down Contreras would add one of the game’s better catchers to that group. The 26-year-old swatted 17 homers en route to finishing 11th in NL MVP voting last year, and that kind of offensive production from a legitimate big-league catcher doesn’t come around too often. Milwaukee doesn’t seem to have designs on a prolonged rebuild, and they could retool quickly around Contreras.
3. RHP Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
The good news: Gallen expressed a willingness to discuss an extension last month:
Zac Gallen on his future with the Diamondbacks:
— PHNX Diamondbacks (@PHNX_Dbacks) January 19, 2024
“I love Phoenix. I love it here, especially after us having this success.
“If they want to decide to do something, great, we’ll sit down and figure it out and see what happens. But, as of now, nothing’s been done.” pic.twitter.com/P6uyvM4mmh
The bad news: Gallen employs Scott Boras as an agent, and we know how that typically ends. Gallen is under team control for another two seasons, so this hasn’t reached a point of no return just yet. That said, this Arizona team is very much on the rise after last year’s surprise NL pennant run, and getting him signed long-term is surely something the D-backs would like to do sooner rather than later.
4. RHP Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
In Gilbert and George Kirby, the Mariners have not one but two extension-worthy young aces. Gilbert is a year closer to free agency, though, so he’s the higher priority. The soon-to-be 27-year-old has been the epitome of a workhorse since making his MLB debut in May 2021 — not overly dominant, but a guy who limits walks and misses enough bats and is 13th in innings over the last two-plus years. Seattle handed out extensions to both J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriguez in recent years, and they’d be wise to make Gilbert next to keep their sterling rotation intact. (Plus, after this offseason, there’s plenty of payroll flexibility to be found.)
5. RHP Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
“I’ve only been with Pittsburgh, so it’s all I really know,” Keller said last summer. “I’d love to spend my whole career here, hopefully as long as possible. Having guys like (Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds) locked up, it’s really cool to see some core guys getting locked in. I would love to be a part of that.”
After watching guys like Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton blossom elsewhere, it’s nice to hear a pitcher express a desire to stick around in Pittsburgh. The Pirates signed Hayes and Reynolds to long-term extensions in recent years, and they have a flotilla of young talent on its way to the Majors — highlighted by 2023 No. 1 pick Paul Skenes coming up soon to join Keller in the rotation. You can see the makings of the next contending Pirates team, but that team almost certainly needs Keller — and with the righty two years away from free agency, the clock is beginning to tick.
6. 3B Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
We’ve still yet to see the full Royce Lewis experience, but 2023 was our most tantalizing sample yet, as the former No. 1 overall pick slashed .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs in 239 plate appearances after returning from a second torn ACL last season. Those two knee injuries came along with oblique trouble that’s dogged him at various points throughout his career, and Lewis’ injury history stands as a major red flag. Still, he’s among the game’s brightest young talents when he’s actually on the field, and none of his injuries are of the chronic sort that would give you real pause about giving him a long-term contract. This is the sort of gamble a team like the Twins has to make to keep star talent around.
7. LHP Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins
Speaking of guys who at long last put together an extended run of health: At long last, Luzardo pitched at something approaching an ace level for Miami in 2023, finally making good on his explosive left arm. Talent has never been the question here; the question was whether Luzardo could stay on the field enough to make it matter, and with Sandy Alcantara on the mend after Tommy John, the 26-year-old enters the 2024 season as the Marlins’ de facto ace.
Extending pitchers is always a dicier proposition, just given their increased risk of injury — risk that goes double for someone with Luzardo’s spotty health record. And with new exec Peter Bendix coming over from the roster-churn Rays, maybe the lefty gets dealt rather than signed to a new deal. But guys who throw that hard from the left side are in very high demand, and Miami could buy relatively low before Luzardo well and truly breaks out.
8. IF Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
Really, pick just about any Reds infielder here and they’d be worth handing an extension. But with all due respect to Elly De La Cruz and the gang, we’ll focus on McLain, arguably the team’s best player a year ago — and currently its only above-average defensive middle infielder. With Jonathan India seemingly on the way out, Cincinnati appears ready to build around the UCLA product, who hit .290/.357/.507 as a rookie last season. The Reds have a long history of extending their best young players, one that goes back all the way to Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto; this team is ready to contend, and locking down its promising young core is the next step.
9. C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
The O’s new ownership group announced itself in a big way with the Corbin Burnes trade earlier this month. Next up? Making sure its army of young hitters aren’t going anywhere, and with all due respect to Gunnar Henderson, that list starts with Rutschman. There haven’t been any rumblings regarding the O’s and an extension for their star catcher, but it should only be a matter of time — he’s among the game’s best young talents and among its most important and daunting positions, and he seems to have already become a clubhouse leader. The Burnes trade was all well and good, and top overall prospect Jackson Holliday is on his way, but this rebuild still starts and ends with Rutschman.
10. LHP Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are just about ready to leap back into World Series contention, and at the top of their rotation is Steele, whose breakout season a year ago earned him an All-Star Game berth and a fifth-place finish in the NL Cy Young voting. With four years of team control remaining, he’ll front a rotation that will soon fully incorporate high-end youngsters like Cade Horton and Jordan Wicks.
“That’s something the team has to decide,” Steele told The Athletic in December when asked about the possibility of an extension. “All I can do is go out and continue to perform and do what I do.”
Steele represents one of the Cubs’ few pitching development wins in recent years, a failure that significantly shortened their window following that 2016 World Series title run. Just about all the other pieces are in place for Chicago to own the NL Central over the next few years, but Steele is a weapon they can’t afford to let walk.
