The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
UPDATE:
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 10
CHA +7.5
SAS-DET over 238
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 9
DET +11
SAC-DET over 240
SYSTEM: Home team ATS after not playing the previous day
Rested home underdogs were cooking last week for us, going 8-3 ATS after last week’s version of this article went live (10-3 since the start of 2024). We’re going to expand things with a broader, but still related, system this week.
Over the last week of games, all home teams that didn’t play the previous day have gone 29-16-1. Now, home underdogs in that setting have made up for a significant portion of that success — and may be where I lean more heavily still — but favorites in this setting have also covered over 57% of the time over the last seven days.
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On Monday, there are five teams that fit this system. I’m going with Indiana in the wake of their 17-point loss to the same team they’ll face Monday. Both teams were on the second leg of a back-to-back in their previous meeting, so the system we’re highlighting wasn’t in play. Furthermore, on top of the highlighted system being in play Monday, the Celtics are 4-8 ATS when playing as a road favorite against an underdog that’s playing on one day’s rest.
SYSTEM MATCHES: Home team ATS after not playing the previous day
| 1/8 | 1/9 | 1/10 | 1/11 | 1/12 | 1/13 | 1/14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/8 | 1/9 | 1/10 | 1/11 | 1/12 | 1/13 | 1/14 |
| IND vs. BOS | ORL vs. MIN | CHA vs. SAC | CLE vs. BKN** | PHI vs. SAC | BOS vs. HOU | DEN vs. IND |
| WAS vs. OKC | DET vs. SAC | BOS vs. MIN | MIL vs. BOS | ATL vs. IND | MIL vs. GSW | MIA vs. CHA |
| CHA vs. CHI | NYK vs. POR | IND vs. WAS | DAL vs. NYK | DET vs. HOU | OKC vs. ORL | MIN vs. LAC |
| MIA vs. HOU | DAL vs. MEM | ATL vs. PHI | LAL vs. PHO | MIN vs. POR | DAl vs. NOP | POR vs. PHO |
| MIL vs. UTA | LAL vs. TOR | MIA vs. OKC | MIA vs. ORL | |||
| GSW vs. NOP | MEM vs. LAC | |||||
| UTA vs. DEN | CHI vs. GSW | |||||
| LAC vs. TOR | UTA vs. TOR | |||||
| DEN vs. NOP | ||||||
| SA vs. CHA |
(**NOTE: BKN-CLE will be played in Paris, France.)
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 8
IND +3.5
SYSTEM: Over on total when road favorite is coming off a loss
This doesn’t have a large sample size over the last week of games (3-2), but it’s got a hit rate of 61.54% (16-10) over the last 30 days. That’s brought the season-long success rate up to 56.76% (42-32).
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There’s only one choice for this system on Monday. OKC has only been in this setting once, and the over did hit in that game. But another number we can look to: When this system is in play for a non-conference game that features a West favorite, the over is 9-5 (64.3%). Also, the over is 2-1 when the Wizards are a non-conference dog. All told, the over is 18-11-1 in non-conference games that feature a West favorite.
NOTE: No table laying out potential plays for this system throughout the week because odds are unavailable as of writing and this play is also dependent on the outcome of the favorite’s previous game.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 8
OKC-WAS over 246.5
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
