The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
UPDATE:
PICKS FOR JANUARY 4
MIL-SAS over 247.5
GSW +3
PICKS FOR JANUARY 3
IND +3.5
SYSTEM: Home underdogs ATS after not playing the previous day
Over the holidays, this system has been quite effective. Underdogs in this setting have covered 62.5% of the time (10-6) over the last seven days, which has elevated the system to right around a break-even play for those who’ve been utilizing it throughout 2023-24 (assuming every play in the system was played at -110 odds).
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During this recent stretch, road underdogs have also done well ATS after not playing the previous day. However, I’m going with this home underdogs system instead for two reasons:
POTENTIAL SYSTEM MATCHES: Home underdogs ATS after not playing the previous day
| 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/7 |
| OKC vs. BOS | CLE vs. WAS | SAS vs. MIL | IND vs. ATL | N/A | CLE vs. SAS |
| IND vs. MIL | GSW vs. DEN | BOS vs. UTA | BKN vs. POR | ||
| ATL vs. OKC | CLE vs. WAS | SAC vs. NOP | |||
| MIN vs. NOP | BKN vs. OKC | ORL vs. ATL | |||
| HOU vs. BKN | PHI vs. NYK | DAL vs. MIN | |||
| DAL vs. POR | NOP vs. LAC | DEN vs. DET | |||
| NYK vs. CHI | CHI vs. CHA | PHO vs. MEM | |||
| PHO vs. LAC | HOU vs. MIN | GSW vs. TOR | |||
| UTA vs. DET | DAL vs. POR | LAL vs. LAC | |||
| LAL vs. MIA | PHO vs. MIA | ||||
| LAL vs. MEM | |||||
| SAC vs. TOR |
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 2
OKC +4
SYSTEM: Over on total when Eastern Conference team is favored in non-conference games
This play hasn’t seen much action over the last seven days, going just 1-2 over the holidays. That said, this system is 13-5 over the last month.
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More importantly, the over has hit over 58% of the time when an East team is favored against a West team this season. This isn’t exactly a new trend, either. This has been a good play over the last couple seasons. In 2021-22, it hit 55.8% of the time. Last season, the over hit in over 56% of the games where it was in play.
POTENTIAL SYSTEM MATCHES: Over on total when Eastern Conference team is favored in non-conference games
| 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/7 |
| OKC vs. BOS | ATL vs. OKC | SAS vs. MIL | BOS vs. UTA | PHI vs. UTA | CLE vs. SAS |
| HOU vs. BKN | BKN vs. OKC | HOU vs. MIL | BKN vs. POR | ||
| UTA vs. DET | ORL vs. DEN | DEN vs. DET | |||
| LAL vs. MIA | PHO vs. MIA | GSW vs. TOR | |||
| MEM vs. TOR | DET vs. GSW | ||||
| SAC vs. ORL | SAC vs. TOR |
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 2
OKC-BOS over 240
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
