Update: Finney-Smith has been ruled out, while Antetokounmpo is good to go for the Bucks. The line has ballooned from Bucks -4.5 to Bucks -10. Milwaukee has covered only one of its last six double-digit spreads but the Nets are so depleted right now I’ll still take the Bucks. The total is 242.5, and I’ll take the under there.
Update: The Nets have ruled out Spencer Dinwiddie, Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton for the second night of a back-to-back set, with Dorian Finney-Smith listed as questionable. The line has moved to Bucks -6.5, with the total coming in at 240. I like Milwaukee to cover at this number, and I now like the under on the total with the Nets missing three key guys for sure.
The Milwaukee Bucks (22-8) will look to bounce back from a loss on Christmas Day when they get the Brooklyn Nets (15-15) on the second night of a back-to-back for the home team. The Nets handed the Pistons their record 27th straight loss Tuesday, and have won their last two games. This is the second meeting between these teams, with Milwaukee winning the first contest 129-125.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as questionable for the Bucks due to injury management. The Nets won’t release an official injury report until later in the day but we’ll see if they rest anyone on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Bucks are 4.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 240.5. Milwaukee is -185 on the moneyline while Brooklyn is +154.
Bucks vs. Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Nets +4.5
Milwaukee is actually not that great after a loss this season. The Bucks are 2-4-1 ATS following a setback, and Antetokounmpo’s clouded status doesn’t help matters. The Bucks are 5-6 ATS as the away favorite but are just 1-5 ATS with a rest advantage. The Nets are 2-1-1 ATS on no rest, and 4-1-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage. They are 3-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
It was a four-point margin last time these two teams played, and this line will close or widen depending on Antetokounmpo’s status and Brooklyn’s injury report. For now, the trends suggest a strong effort from the Nets to keep this close. I like the Nets to cover.
Over/Under: Over 240.5
The Bucks have one of the top offenses in the league, averaging 124.5 points per game. Milwaukee is 20-10 to the over this season, going 8-4 to the over on the road and 4-3 to the over following a loss. The Nets are 16-13 to the over on the season, with a 9-7 mark to the over as the home team. Brooklyn is 3-1 to the over on no rest. Barring a slew of absences, I like the over to hit in this one.