The Philadelphia Phillies nearly reached the National League mountaintop for a second season in a row in 2023 before they were upended in the National League Championship Series by the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks. As they look to finally get over the hump, here’s what their offseason might look like — including some big names who could be saying goodbye.
Phillies offseason preview
Season in review
The Phillies went 90-72 in the regular season and finished second in the National League East behind the super-powered Atlanta Braves. They ended up getting their revenge two weeks later, however, as they beat the Braves 3-1 in the National League Division Series after sweeping the Marlins in the Wild Card Series. The Phillies ended up losing to the D-backs in seven games in a roller-coaster NLCS.
Pending free agents
The start of the Phillies’ free-agent conversation begins and ends with Aaron Nola. Nola’s pitched 1,065.1 innings since 2018 and accumulated 26 bWAR over that time, which is the fifth-best mark among starting pitchers in that time span. Nola went 12-9 with a mediocre 4.46 ERA in 2023, but he still could be in line for a $200 million contract this offseason, which would likely put him out of the Phillies’ price range.
After Nola, the Phillies’ other free agents are first baseman Rhys Hoskins, reliever Craig Kimbrel and starter/swingman Michael Lorenzen. All of them are lower-tier free agents who will likely be in line for cheaper deals, but I can’t see any of them ending up back in Philadelphia. Bryce Harper is going to play first base full-time in 2024 which means the end of Hoskins’ time in Philly; Lorenzen wants to start, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said that he wants to sign a pitcher of Nola’s ilk if the team doesn’t re-sign Nola. Kimbrel is unlikely to return after he allowed four runs in three innings in the NLCS.
Biggest needs
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Last offseason the Phillies had a hole in the middle infield and responded by signing Trea Turner to a 11-year, $300 million contract. Now it’s time to see if they’ll fill their hole in the rotation by signing Nola to a contract that will be close to $200 million. The one-time All-Star has recorded more than 1,500 strikeouts in his career, has tossed three shutouts and had three seasons where he’s finished in the top-10 in Cy Young voting. He’s a horse who can take the ball every five days, which has been a boon for the Phillies since he became a rotational mainstay in 2018. Outside of that, they’ll need to add some reinforcements to their bullpen along with adding another lower-tier outfielder.
Best free-agent fits
If the Phillies can’t grab Nola, they’ll be in play for all of the big-name starting pitchers on the market, which include Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Marcus Stroman and Japanese import Yoshinobu Yamamoto, among others. There are also some smaller names on the market like Lucas Giolito or Jack Flaherty, but I’d imagine the Phillies will be all-in on the biggest names given Dombrowski’s track record. With Harper shifting to the infield full-time, the Phillies might go after an everyday outfielder, which would allow Kyle Schwarber to DH full-time. Some names they could consider would be Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Kiermaier or Tommy Pham.
Potential trades
One name who stands out as a potential trade target for the Phillies is Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, who will be a free agent after 2024. The Brewers just lost manager Craig Counsell to the Cubs and traded outfielder Mark Canha to the Tigers for prospects, which could signify the team taking a step back in ‘24. If the Brewers do end up dangling Burnes in trade talks, then I’d imagine the Phillies would be all-in on trying to grab the talented hurler. I could also see them kicking the tires on Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo, who is reportedly on the trading block.