Everything’s gone topsy-turvy in the NL playoffs. Gone are the 104-win Atlanta Braves. Gone are the 100-win Los Angeles Dodgers, In their place are two red-hot Wild Cards — one all too used to crashing October parties, the other supposed to be home golfing by this time of year. The Philadelphia Phillies have once again peaked at the right time, dispatching Atlanta in a war of an NLDS thanks to two aces who’ve finally started pitching like it, a seemingly limitless bullpen and an offense that’s a threat to go deep at any moment. Their swagger? Unchecked. Their vibes? Immaculate.
And yet, this time around, Philly isn’t the plucky Cinderella in the NLCS. That honor belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks — a team absolutely no one saw coming, who went just 84-78 in the regular season but has rampaged through two division winners while playing four of its five postseason games thus far on the road. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are as strong a rotation foundation as anyone, and the whole country is about to get introduced to presumptive NL Rookie of the Year and budding superstar Corbin Carroll. The Snakes are harnessing some real devil magic right now, and you overlook them at your own risk.
NLCS schedule, start times
Game 1: Diamondbacks at Phillies, Monday, Oct. 16, 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Game 2: Diamondbacks at Phillies, Tuesday, Oct. 17, 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Game 3: Phillies at Diamondbacks, Thursday, Oct. 19, 5:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Game 4: Phillies at Diamondbacks, Friday, Oct. 20, 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Game 5: Phillies at Diamondbacks, Saturday, Oct. 21, 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS*
Game 6: Diamondbacks at Phillies, Monday, Oct. 23, 5:07 p.m. ET, TBS*
Game 7: Diamondbacks at Phillies, Tuesday, Oct. 24, 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS*
*if necessary
Tale of the tape
NLCS tale of the tape
| Runs/game | Team OPS | SP ERA | RP ERA | Defensive Runs Saved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runs/game | Team OPS | SP ERA | RP ERA | Defensive Runs Saved |
| 4.9 (8th) | .765 (6th) | 4.30 (15th) | 3.58 (7th) | -25 (25th) |
| 4.61 (14th) | .730 (17th) | 4.67 (21st) | 4.22 (18th) | 46 (4th) |
Pitching matchups
You can throw those full-season numbers up there right out the window. Both of these teams have ridden twin aces thus far: Gallen and Kelly for the D-backs, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler for Philly. A big question in this series will be about what comes next. The Phillies have Ranger Suarez — sensational in two starts against Atlanta in the NLDS — and other options like rookie Cristopher Sanchez or righty Michael Lorenzen. Arizona, meanwhile, has yet to really dip into its sketchy back-end of the rotation, largely because they haven’t had to over the course of two sweeps. Rookie Brandon Pfaadt pitched the game of his life in Game 3 against the Dodgers, but he lasted just 2.2 innings against Milwaukee in the Wild Card round and remains iffy; after that, you’re down to guys like Ryne Nelson. A seven-game series is a different animal, and could give Philly the edge in a war of attrition.
Once the starters are out, though, runs could be hard to come by. Hard as this is to believe based on what happened in the regular season, these two teams rank second (Philly, 1.45) and third (Arizona, 1.77) in bullpen ERA so far in the postseason. The D-backs in particular have come out of nowhere: Torey Lovullo has gotten incredible results from guys like Rays cast-off Ryan Thompson, rookie lefty Andrew Saalfrank and righty Kevin Ginkel, the latter of whom was electric in closing the door on the Dodgers in Game 3. It’s hard to quibble with what they’ve done and how they’re pitching right now, but again, the depth advantage likely lies with the Phils — Rob Thomson’s squad can go eight or nine deep with impact arms, silencing the Braves’ bats without even having to dust off Jeff Hoffman or rookie Orion Kerkering, both of whom have late-game stuff. Philly’s pitching situation is as good as anyone’s right now.
Why the Diamondbacks will win
Sure, the Brewers were down Brandon Woodruff. And sure, the Dodgers had been running on fumes. But 5-0 is still 5-0, and Arizona has pressed every advantage it’s been given in this postseason — including during an NLDS that, frankly, didn’t feel all that competitive most of the time. The D-backs have the ingredients you need for a postseason run. Frontline starters? Gallen and Kelly can go head-to-head with anyone. A great bullpen? Arizona’s has pitched to a 1.77 ERA so far, with unheralded arms turning into stars. An offense that does damage? While Philly’s lineup gets all the attention for its homers, Carroll and Co. are tied with the Phils for the postseason lead at 13 — and they’ve done so in one fewer game. This team is brimming with confidence, and they’re built to win short series.
Why the Phillies will win
Everything you can say about the Diamondbacks is true of the Phillies, except a little bit more. Wheeler and Nola are finally pitching like the aces that were promised, and are probably slightly better than Gallen and Nola. While Arizona’s bullpen is third in postseason ERA, Philly’s is third, relying less on maybe-fluky performances and more on proven contributors. And while the top of the Snakes’ order is awfully dangerous, Alek Thomas, Evan Longoria and Geraldo Perdomo provide a safe landing spot at the bottom that simply doesn’t exist with the Phils. Both of these teams have the postseason formula down pat, but one of them feels more likely to keep it going.
