The Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Divisional round in the 2023 MLB playoffs.
Kudos to Arizona, who no one gave much of a chance in the Wild Card round but who took advantage of every single opportunity en route to a stunning road sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers. The D-backs limped into the playoffs, hanging on to the sixth seed despite getting swept on the season’s final weekend, but they’ve got an awful lot of momentum after the last couple of days — and Corbin Carroll, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly go a long way.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, cruised to yet another NL West title and a 100-62 record — finishing a whopping 16 games ahead of Arizona in the process. It wasn’t always smooth sailing for L.A. — their rotation has been decimated by both injuries and the troubling off-field allegations against Julio Urias, while the lineup isn’t quite as starry as years past — but they’ll once again be a tough out in October.
Let’s take a look at the starting pitchers for this best-of-5 series.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers starting pitchers
Diamondbacks
Game 1: Merrill Kelly (12-8, 3.29 ERA)
Game 2: Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47)
Game 3: Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72)
Game 4: TBD (potentially Merrill Kelly on short rest)
Game 5: Zac Gallen
Game 1 is a no-brainer for Torey Lovullo: With Gallen pitching Game 2 in Milwaukee on Wednesday night and Kelly having not pitched since the final weekend of the regular season, Arizona will give the ball to its coace on Saturday. Kelly has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this season, though he’s had mixed results against the Dodgers in four starts this season — he fired six shutout innings against L.A. on August 9 but was roughed up for seven runs on 12 hits over five innings on August 29.
Gallen wasn’t at his sharpest in his Wild Card start, but he grinded out six innings of two-run ball to keep Arizona in the game and remains one of the best arms around. Los Angeles has smacked him around in two starts against them in 2023, though, banging out five runs on six hits over four innings on Opening Day and six runs on nine hits over 5.1 innings in late August.
Arizona showed a ton of confidence in giving Pfaadt the ball in Game 1 — sure, Gallen and Kelly were unavailable, but still — and they’ll likely be forced to roll him out again in Game 3. Ryne Nelson will be ready as a piggyback option, as the rookie only lasted 2.2 innings against the Brewers and has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) over 8.2 innings across two starts vs. Los Angeles this year.
The D-backs seem unlikely to let anyone else start a game in this series, meaning they’ll roll with Kelly on short rest in a potential Game 4 and have Gallen on normal rest should we get to Game 5.
Dodgers
Game 1: Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 2.46)
Game 2: Bobby Miller (11-4, 3.76)
Game 3: TBD (likely either Lance Lynn or Ryan Pepiot)
Game 4: TBD (likely either Lance Lynn or Ryan Pepiot)
Game 5: Clayton Kershaw
Dave Roberts has already announced that Kershaw will be getting the ball in Game 1, and based on the manager’s comments back in September, we can safely assume that Miller — a former top prospect who really hit the ground running in his rookie season — will be the choice in Game 2. After that, though, things remain up in the air: With Tony Gonsolin injured and Julio Urias unavailable, Roberts has several viable options but no slam dunks. Will he opt for the experience of the veteran Lynn, who was better after coming to Los Angeles at the trade deadline but still had his old home run problems rear their head? Or will he go with another rookie like Pepiot (2-1, 2.14) or Emmet Sheehan (4-1, 4.92)? If I had to guess, I’d go with Lynn in Game 3 and Pepiot in Game 4, maybe with an opener in front of one or both and Sheehan waiting in the wings. Kershaw would be on normal rest in Game 5, with Miller likely also available.
