Not too long ago — with Jeimer Candelario in tow, their lineup rolling and Justin Steele looking like an NL Cy Young candidate — it seemed like the question to be asking was “are the Chicago Cubs a dark horse to reach the World Series?” Just a couple of weeks later, the question has become “will the Chicago Cubs even make the postseason at all?”
That’s how quickly things can change in a race as crowded as the NL Wild Card logjam right now — especially when you lose five in a row and eight of 10, as the Cubs have done following a brutal sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks this weekend. Arizona has now leapfrogged Chicago, holding the second Wild Card spot by a half-game over Chicago. As things stand entering Monday, the Cubs still hold the third and final spot, but just barely: After the Marlins improbably swept the Braves in Miami over the weekend, they’ve now drawn dead even with Chicago in the standings — with Chicago holding the tiebreaker edge thanks to winning the season series.
The Cubs are now 7-10 in September, and it’s hard to pinpoint a reason for those struggles beyond somehow amounting to less than the sum of their parts. Chicago ranks sixth in starters’ ERA this month, but they’ve allowed six or more runs six times over their last 10 games: Steele suffered one of his worst starts of the year in Arizona, while Kyle Hendricks and Jordan Wicks also got knocked around. They’re a middling 14th in team OPS, and they remained absolutely allergic to coming up with a hit in big spots this weekend — particularly prize free agent Dansby Swanson, who remains mired in a second-half slump. The bullpen has taken a step back without closer Adbert Alzolay — out indefinitely with a forearm strain, though he’s already resumed a throwing program — but Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. have both emerged in his absence.
Overall, Chicago has a ton of talent but also some clear flaws, flaws that are making themselves known at the worst possible time. Marcus Stroman’s pending return to the rotation will be a huge boon, and Hendricks and Wicks will likely pitch better than they have their last couple of turns. But there are still more question marks in this rotation than you’d like, especially if their offense is going to be something closer to average than the elite outfit they were to start the second half. Which begs the question: Can the Cubs get this turned around, and will it be too little, too late to see October for the first time since 2020?
If the answer is going to be yes, it’s going to have to come right now: Chicago gets series at home against the Pirates and Rockies this week, and it’s hard not to feel like anything less than 5-1 might doom them given that they close the season with series against the Braves and Brewers next week. Fangraphs currently places their Wild Card odds at 45.0%, well behind the Phillies and just behind Arizona (56.5%) and Miami (55.4%).
If I had to make a prediction, though, I’d still give them better odds than at least the Marlins. Call me a sucker, but I still believe in the talent this team has, especially if Stroman can return looking anything like himself. Stroman, Steele, Hendricks, Wicks and Javier Assad is a perfectly solid starting five, while the lineup goes seven or eight deep some nights with quality Major League hitters. Pointing at how good a roster looks on paper doesn’t really get you anywhere — just ask Miami, who’s been defying the odds all year — but the Cubs have been much a better team at Wrigley Field in 2023, and some home cooking could be just the thing they need to get themselves over the finish line.
