Labor Day has come and gone, which means we’re about to enter the sprint to the regular-season finish. With so much riding on every game, everything players do is magnified; this is the time where playoff spots — and individual awards — are won and lost. Blake Snell is just about the only thing that’s gone right for the Padres in the second half, Justin Steele is putting the Cubs on his back and Spencer Strider alternates between sheer brilliance and frustrating inconsistency. Zac Gallen and Logan Webb, meanwhile, have fallen off the pace a bit as they struggle to keep their teams afloat in the NL Wild Card race.
September is here, and there’s precious little time left to build an awards argument. So, just like we did back in late August, let’s take a look at how the past few weeks and have impacted the NL Cy Young race over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Updated NL Cy Young odds as of Tuesday, September 5
Blake Snell -190 Justin Steele +200 Spencer Strider +450
Zac Gallen +2200 Zack Wheeler +7500 Logan Webb +7500
Corbin Burnes +9000 Clayton Kershaw +10000 Kodai Senga +15000
Merrill Kelly +15000 Jesus Luzardo +15000 Charlie Morton +20000
The biggest losers in this latest update are Gallen and Webb; the former got shelled in consecutive starts against the Dodgers and Orioles, while the latter had to deal with the Braves twice in a row to predictable results. The biggest winner is undoubtedly Steele, who fired eight more shutout innings (with 12 Ks) on Monday against the Giants to lower his second-half ERA to 2.52 thrust himself right into the thick of this race. Beyond that, though, things largely stayed the same: Snell keeps handing out walks like they’re candy but getting away with it because no one can touch his stuff when he’s near the strike zone, while Strider remains the league’s preeminent strikeout artist but gets occasionally burned by leaving one too many pitches over the heart of the plate. This is more or less a three-pitcher race as we come down the home stretch, but where does the value lie for bettors?
NL Cy Young race: Takeaways and best bets
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (+450)
Has it been frustrating watching Strider look like he’s finally about to go supernova, only to stub his toe again? Absolutely. Does he still have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in baseball? Again, absolutely, and that makes him great value as just the third-lowest odds on the board in a three-man race. Snell continues to be great, but his terrible walk rate makes him just as volatile a proposition — and the fact that the Padres are more or less out of the Wild Card chase means he’ll continue pitching in relative obscurity for the next few weeks.
Strider, meanwhile, will be front and center for voters — he’s scheduled for marquee matchups against the Cubs and Phillies down the stretch — and if he can kick his long-ball problem (he gave up four runs on just four hits while striking out nine against the Dodgers over the weekend) he has a chance to narrow the ERA gap. (Snell leads the NL at 2.50, while Strider is ninth at 3.56.) The Braves righty leads the league in WHIP and is lapping the field in K/9; run prevention is the only missing piece here, and I’d much rather take the extra juice on a pitcher every bit as talented in a better team context.
Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs (+200)
Narratively speaking, no one will be more compelling than Steele, who in the wake of Marcus Stroman’s injury has become the sole anchor of a Cubs staff fighting to hold on to a Wild Card spot in the season’s final weeks. He currently leads the Majors in ERA+, and if he keeps this up down the stretch — he has two matchups with the D-backs and potentially another with the division-leading Brewers in the finale series of the year — he could conceivably have Snell beat in ERA and WHIP while playing bigger games for the better team in a tougher pitcher’s park. (Plus, playing in Chicago has never hurt any player’s visibility.) Where Strider and Snell are more the sabermetric candidates, Steele has lots of old-school appeal — and, more importantly, he’s got the highest floor of any of the three, as both Snell and Strider are liable to go haywire with their command at any moment.
