We’ve officially hit Labor Day, which means we’re about to enter the sprint to the regular-season finish. With so much riding on every game, everything players do is magnified; this is the time where playoff spots — and individual awards — are won and lost. Fortunately for the Baltimore Orioles, Gunnar Henderson doesn’t appear to be feeling the pressure. The third baseman just keeps right on raking, while Triston Casas — not Masataka Yoshida — has been the Red Sox rookie raking at the plate as Boston tries to break out of a late-summer swoon. Josh Jung’s heartbreaking injury has knocked him nearly off the board entirely, while a pair of Astros rookies — J.P. France and Yainer Diaz — have entered the chat.
September is here, and there’s precious little time left to build an awards argument. So, just like we did back in late August, let’s take a look at how the past few weeks and have impacted the AL Rookie of the Year race over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Updated AL Rookie of the Year odds as of Monday, September 4
Gunnar Henderson -700 Triston Casas +800 Tanner Bibee +1500
Masataka Yoshida +3000 Josh Jung +6000 Yainer Diaz +8000
J.P. France +8000 Edouard Julien +10000 Royce Lewis +10000
Esteury Ruiz +15000 Anthony Volpe +15000 Bryce Miller +20000
For the first time all year, Yoshida has fallen out of the top three of this race. (Posting a .696 OPS in the second half while your team slides out of a Wild Card spot will do that.) Casas has been among Boston’s offensive stalwarts of late, and with Jung out until at least late September with a thumb fracture, he’s now taken up the mantle of best non-Henderson position player — though given how he’s torn the cover off the ball since coming back off the IL, things might be different had Lewis been able to stay healthy all summer for the Twins. As it stands, though, this is Henderson’s race to lose, with Diaz and France also cooling off of late and Bibee simply not getting nearly enough shine on a Guardians team that remains mired in mediocrity.
Still, -700 isn’t the sort of juice we get excited about. So is there any chance that Henderson doesn’t win this award, and where might there be opportunities for profit?
AL Rookie of the Year race: Takeaways and best bets
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox (+800)
I’m bearish on Yoshida’s chances to catch Henderson; even if he breaks out of his recent slump, he’s more of a high-floor than low-ceiling player — unlikely to get scorching hot for an extended period of time — and he has to fight against the notion that he’s not a “real” rookie after starring in Japan for several years. Casas, meanwhile, fits the bill more closely, and he’s capable of the kind of power surge that a hitter will need to catch Henderson over the final weeks. He’s slashed .321/.421/.556 with five homers over his last 24 games, raising his season-long OPS to .862 — substantially better than Henderson.
While Yoshida doesn’t have any one overwhelming tool, Casas could well end up with 30 homers in less than a full season of work if he gets hot in September. A first baseman only, stats like WAR aren’t likely to look favorably on his candidacy, but if he catches fire and helps lead the Sox to a playoff spot while Henderson struggles, don’t be surprised if Boston media makes a real push for him.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (+1500)
You’d be forgiven for forgetting all about the Guardians as they more or less punted on this season at the trade deadline, but while Cleveland’s offense remains, well, offensive, Bibee has been nothing short of sensational lately. The righty is now the team’s de-facto ace with Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie on the shelf, and he’s taken that mantle and run with it, posting a 2.27 ERA with 74 strikeouts over 71.1 innings pitched over his last 12 starts dating back to June 24. A 3.03 season-long ERA with a strikeout per inning is awfully impressive for a rookie pitcher, and while Cleveland isn’t likely to nab a playoff spot, it’s not out of the question that Bibee (and the newly-acquired Lucas Giolito) could lead a charge toward the AL Central lead if the Twins continue to scuffle. Bibee would emerge as an awfully appealing candidate of the O’s third baseman slumps down the stretch — making him a great value at +1500.
