With the dust fully settled from the 2023 trade deadline, we’re getting a sense of the new landscape around the league — and how each team’s August acquisitions have hit the ground running (or not) — as the we enter the sprint to the regular-season finish. Unsurprisingly, there’s been a whole lot of change, and unsurprisingly, the futures market for the AL Rookie of the Year Award has responded accordingly. Gunner Henderson just keeps right on raking for the Orioles, but Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas have fallen off the pace a bit as the Red Sox just start to break out of a late-summer swoon. Josh Jung’s heartbreaking injury has knocked him nearly off the board entirely, while a pair of Astros rookies — J.P. France and Yainer Diaz — have entered the chat recently.
September is looming, and there’s precious little time left to build an awards argument. So, just like we did right after the trade deadline, let’s take a look at how the past few weeks and have impacted the AL Rookie of the Year race over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Updated AL Rookie of the Year odds as of Monday, August 21
Gunnar Henderson -300 Masataka Yoshida +450 Triston Casas +500
Tanner Bibee +1600 Josh Jung +4000 Yainer Diaz +4000
J.P. France +5000 Edouard Julien +10000 Royce Lewis +10000
Esteury Ruiz +15000 Anthony Volpe +15000 Bryce Miller +20000
Henderson is just about the only position player of the group who’s just kept on hitting as the summer has progressed. Jung’s fractured thumb more or less takes him out of the running, Lewis — stop me if you’ve heard this before — has been unable to stay healthy, Julien has cooled off a bit of late and Yoshida has a .595 OPS over his last 22 games. The Baltimore third baseman, meanwhile, has slashed .298/.333/.532 over the last two weeks, raising his season-long OPS to .815 with 21 homers and six steals. He also provides substantially more defensive value than Yoshida, Casas or Diaz (who sometimes catches but largely spends time at DH for the Astros), making it obvious why he’s the prohibitive favorite here.
Still, -300 isn’t the sort of juice we get excited about. So is there any chance that Henderson doesn’t win this award, and where might there be opportunities for profit?
AL Rookie of the Year race: Takeaways and best bets
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (+1600)
You’d be forgiven for forgetting all about the Guardians as they more or less punted on this season at the trade deadline, but while Cleveland’s offense remains, well, offensive, Bibee has been nothing short of sensational lately. The righty is now the team’s de-facto ace with Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie on the shelf, and he’s taken that mantle and run with it, posting a 2.09 ERA with 61 strikeouts over 60.1 innings pitched over his last 10 starts dating back to June 24. A 3.01 season-long ERA with a strikeout per inning is awfully impressive for a rookie pitcher, and while Cleveland’s September irrelevance will certainly hurt him while Henderson stars in the thick of a pennant race, Bibee would emerge as an awfully appealing candidate of the O’s third baseman slumps down the stretch — making him a great value at +1600.
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox (+500)
I’m bearish on Yoshida’s chances to catch Henderson; even if he breaks out of his recent slump, he’s more of a high-floor than low-ceiling player — unlikely to get scorching hot for an extended period of time — and he has to fight against the notion that he’s not a “real” rookie after starring in Japan for several years. Casas, meanwhile, fits the bill more closely, and he’s capable of the kind of power surge that a hitter will need to catch Henderson over the final weeks. He’s slashed .274/.361/.548 with six homers over his last 21 games, raising his season-long OPS to .836 — better than Henderson.
While Yoshida doesn’t have any one overwhelming tool, Casas could well end up with 30 homers in less than a full season of work if he gets hot in September. A first baseman only, stats like WAR aren’t likely to look favorably on his candidacy, but if he catches fire and helps lead the Sox to a playoff spot while Henderson struggles, don’t be surprised if Boston media makes a real push for him.
