All-Star Weekend is officially in the rearview mirror, and while it gave us plenty of memorable moments, we don’t have time to dwell — because MLB’s stretch run is right around the corner. All 30 teams are taking the next couple of days off, but when they return on Friday, they’ll kick off a mad, 2.5-month sprint to the finish, as each game could decide a division title or a Wild Card spot (or the most momentous free-agent decision in recent baseball history).
Before all that gets underway, let’s take a moment to recap where things stand. We’ll start in the American League, where the Rays have stumbled a bit since their historic start, the Rangers have also hit a cold spell, the Yankees and Angels are floundering and the Central … well, we’re not sure anyone wants to win the Central right now. The full AL playoff picture is below, complete with the outlook for each team in what should be a wild second half.
American League playoff picture
No. 1 seed, AL East leader — Tampa Bay Rays (58-35)
No. 2 seed, AL West leader — Texas Rangers (52-39)
No. 3 seed, AL Central leader — Cleveland Guardians (45-45)
Wild Card
1st WC — Baltimore Orioles (54-35)
2nd WC — Houston Astros (50-41)
3rd WC — Toronto Blue Jays (50-41)
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New York Yankees (49-42) — 1.0 GB
Boston Red Sox (48-43) — 2.0 GB
Seattle Mariners (45-44) — 4.0 GB
Los Angeles Angels (45-46) — 5.0 GB
Minnesota Twins (45-46) — 5.0 GB
Second-half outlook
The good news: All but four teams (with apologies to the Tigers, White Sox, Royals and A’s) will be highly motivated to compete for a playoff spot this summer — the Mariners and Twins are smack in the middle of their contention windows, while the Angels selling would mean giving up on Shohei Ohtani — leaving 11 clubs battling it out for just six spots. How that’s going to shake itself out is anyone’s guess right now.
The Rays seemed to have the East (and the top seed in the AL playoffs) sewn up by May, but injuries and offensive inconsistency have brought Tampa back to Earth while the O’s have just kept whittling away at that once-insurmountable lead. Baltimore is now tied in the loss column, and if they dip into their prospect cache to land a frontline starter (Lucas Giolito, anyone?), they could absolutely catch the Rays for the division crown.
Speaking of contenders that need pitching: The Rangers are just 17-19 since the start of June, and 12-19 over their last 31 games. Texas’ lineup is as potent as anyone’s, but how much do you really trust Martin Perez, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning down the stretch — and how much do you trust All-Star Nathan Eovaldi to stay healthy, especially given his recently-diminished fastball velocity? Houston should be getting Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve back soon, and it’ll be fascinating to see how these intrastate rivals position themselves at the trade deadline.
Which brings us [deep sigh] to the Central, where the Twins seemed to be giving themselves some breathing room again … only to drop three in a row before the All-Star break to hand the lead back to the Guardians. Whichever one of these teams finds a functional lineup first will probably win, even if they dip into their considerable starting pitching depth — Shane Bieber has just 1.5 years left on his deal, just saying — to do it.
Can the Yankees get Aaron Judge back soon (or field a functional offense without him)? Will the Red Sox, staying afloat thanks to James Paxton, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta, be buyers or sellers or something in between? Will the injury-ravaged Angels, swooning since mid-June, lose enough that they actually pull the plug on Ohtani at the trade deadline? Can Julio Rodriguez propel the Mariners to their second consecutive postseason berth? We can’t wait to find out.
