Fantasy baseball trade value rankings: Time to sell high on two hot rookie pitchers

After coming after Elly De La Cruz last week, I feel like I’m rapidly turning this space into a bummer, dousing cold water on whoever happens to be baseball’s next big thing at the moment. Fantasy baseball is, above all else, supposed to be fun, and owning the next big thing (especially one who can do the stuff Elly does on a baseball field) is about as fun as fun can get. But we’re almost into July; it’s time to decide whether you’re in it to win it this year, and what you might need to make that happen. Time to check narrative and sentiment at the door.

Which is where our weekly trade value rankings come in. Not only do we rank the top 200 players for fantasy baseball (5×5 roto), but we also break down who’s rising, who’s falling and who we recommend targeting on the trade market. Whose hot start is fool’s gold? Who’s about to turn the corner? Read on for this week’s list, and for an explanation of why Eury Perez and Andrew Abbott might belong on your trading block.

Buy

• After giving up nine runs on 12 hits and six walks across his last two starts, Tyler Glasnow’s stock is about as low as it’s going to get — especially among owners who waited more than a month for him to finally make his 2023 debut. But if you can pounce on that frustration in the wake of his disastrous start against the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday, you’d be wise to do so, because odds are that a bounce-back is coming soon.

For starters, Glasnow’s stuff is as electric as ever. His whiff and K rates are in the top 12 percent of the league, and even over his last two starts, he’s got 13 strikeouts in just 9.2 innings. The fastball velocity isn’t quite back to normal yet, but it’s getting there, and he’s consistently elevating it in the way he needs to in order to be successful. His slider, too, is posting monstrous strike and whiff rates. So what’s the problem? I’m not sure it’s much more complicated than just a bad day at the office — the O’s punished every mistake he made, giving him a line that wasn’t reflective of how well he actually pitched. We have several years of track record suggesting that Glasnow is as elite as they come when he’s healthy, and unless his stuff starts trending in the wrong direction, that’s what I’m banking on.

• More digital ink has been spilled on Willson Contreras than just about any other player in baseball this season, as the St. Louis Cardinals and their prized offseason acquisition have stumbled out of the gates. Yet for all of Contreras’ struggles at the plate, the former Chicago Cubs All-Star still ranks … ninth among all catchers in fantasy production. He hasn’t killed you if you drafted him, in other words, and the good news is that better days should be on the horizon: Contreras’ numbers, from his hard-hit rate to his expected batting average and slugging percentage to his exit velocities, are right in line with previous years. With two multi-hit games over his last five, the rebound might have even started already, so buy low here while you still can.

Sell

• First, a disclaimer: I could not be more all-in on Eury Perez as a pitcher. His talent is undeniable, and he’s been sensational over his first eight MLB starts. If you’re in a dynasty league, you don’t need me to tell you this, but you should be holding onto him for dear life (and taking a victory lap that he’ll be on your roster for years to come). For those of you in redraft leagues, though, I think now — on the heels of six more dominant innings against the Toronto Blue Jays this week — might be the time to pull the cord.

As Perez continues to put up zeroes, rumors have swirled over how the Miami Marlins are going to handle their 20-year-old cornerstone. Perez has never thrown more than 78 innings in a season, and he’s already up to 72 so far this year; a pause, if not an outright shutdown, is coming. The problem is that no one, likely not even the team, have a solid idea of what his innings limit should actually be.

The upcoming All-Star break could provide an opportunity to put Perez on the shelf for a bit — slap him with a phantom IL designation, and let him sit for a few weeks on either side of the Midsummer Classic before returning for the stretch run. Even if that’s not the exact plan, he’s likely to disappoint in terms of actual value over the last three-plus months of the season, especially considering that his ratios are bound to regress a little bit (he has a 3.79 xERA and 3.94 SIERA, after all). If you can strike while the iron’s hot and get a top 100-125 overall player for him, I say pull the trigger.

• The case for selling Andrew Abbott is a bit more straight-forward — as bright as the top Cincinnati Reds prospect’s future is, he’s gotten awfully lucky so far in his Major League career. His BABIP sits at an impossibly low .200. His strand rate literally could not be better at 100%. His SIERA sits at a whopping 5.78, and his average exit velocity (92.3) would be the second-highest in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. And he’s done all this while playing in the most extreme offensive environment this side of Coors Field. Abbott struck out 10 in a solid outing against the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, but really, that just extends the sell-high window by a few more days. Take advantage of it while you can.

Fantasy baseball trade value rankings: Week 13