The Trending NBA Betting Systems article from earlier in the week has been updated with a play, but we’re going to add a couple more here.
Total over 240 -110
A system I posted on X right when the season was starting was over on the total in Western Conference games when the underdog is on the second leg of a back-to-back. The last two seasons, that play has been hitting over 57% of the time. To start this season, it’s 7-0.
Now, that early success could mean a harsh regression is due soon. There may come a day where I look to fade the play because this type of consistency isn’t sustainable. But it is not this day.
This day, there were three games that could have potentially applied to this system:
- UTA @ POR - if UTA is the underdog
- GSW @ PHO - If PHO is the underdog
- DAL @ LAL - if LAL is the underdog
All these spreads are close as of writing, but the Lakers are ultimately the only team that puts this system in play on Wednesday. I wouldn’t think UTA will flip to dogs, but keep tabs there. PHO opened as two-point favorites and is currently a 1.5-point fav. If you’re interested in a second play within this system, best to keep tabs on that one until tip — as always is the case when considering this type of system, in which you’re not betting on a dog or fav but your decision is based on who is the dog or fav in the game.
As for DAL-LAL specifically, the Mavericks are one of the best teams to the over (11-3). The Lakers are on the opposite end of the spectrum (5-10). The lack of rest for LeBron James and company would make me lean toward siding with the over already, to go with Dallas’ consistency in that department, but the aforementioned system being in play is what cements this pick.
Also, one of the systems highlighted in the Trending NBA Systems article was over on the total when a road favorite is coming off a loss. Dallas fits that system.
Pelicans +2.5 -125
As of writing, the Pelicans are two-point dogs. Sacrificing some payout with this one, but I’d rather take out the push and not keep the window so small.
This game applies to another system from earlier in the week: Home underdogs ATS following a win. More importantly, there’s a subsystem within this larger system that’s in play here. Home underdogs ATS in Western Conference games following a win are 9-3 ATS this season. Last season, they went 35-16 ATS (66%).
Now, these two teams have been among the league’s best ATS. However, the Kings are 2-5-1 ATS as favorites. The Pelicans, on the other hand, are 6-3-1 ATS as underdogs.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.