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Jordan Montgomery took it to the Rays on Monday, and he’s put the Rangers in an interesting spot for bettors as a result.
As of writing, the Rangers are +124 moneyline underdogs. Nothing wrong with taking a flier on them in that market, especially with Zach Eflin being a less intimidating matchup for Texas. However, the better avenue appears to be the run line.
Following a win, run line road underdogs went 399-280 this season (58.76%). In this setting, the Rangers went 13-5 (72.2%) on the run line. Overall, when playing as the underdog after a win, Texas went 18-6 (75%) on the run line.
Also, taking the underdog on the run line has been one of the better plays over the last two MLB postseasons. Run line underdogs covered 61% of the time (47-30) between the 2021 and 2022 playoffs.
This number being so low does seem a bit suspicious. Kevin Gausman only logged five Ks on Tuesday, but the right-hander had done that off-and-on throughout September. This time, it only took him four innings to get there — all while Minnesota scored three runs in a short amount of time.
But Berrios has been in a better place when it comes to strikeouts than Gausman of late. Gausman had one more double-digit strikeout performance than Berrios in September, but Berrios never logged fewer than six punchouts. He also went below seven strikeouts in September just once.
On the season, Berrios logged five-plus strikeouts in 22 of 32 starts. One of those 22 outings came against the Twins, who he managed to log exactly five against over 5 2/3. It’s been a while since that May outing, but Minnesota did log a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the final month of the season. While that’s still a better number than their MLB-worst 27% season-long strikeout rate, it still indicates Berrios is in a position to pop off on Wednesday.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.