All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Right-handed hitters didn’t particularly give Aaron Nola fits throughout the season, despite his 4.29 ERA against them. He managed to hold righties to a .294 wOBA while posting a 3.31 FIP. However, things changed a bit in September. While he still had a low 2.56 FIP against them, right-handed bats put together a .374 wOBA thanks to a 23.1% line-drive rate and a 41% hard-contact rate.
When assessing Nola’s matchup against Riley, that last month carries more weight than the Philly starter’s recent gem vs. Miami. That’s because Riley has cooked Nola throughout his career, logging 10 extra-base hits and a .389 average across 57 plate appearances (54 at-bats).
Two of those extra-base hits came this season, playing a part in Riley posting a .220 ISO against right-handed pitching. He also posted a 41.5% hard-contact rate and managed to log two-plus total bases in 51% of his games this season. Over the last 20, he’s gone over this number 11 times — and six times in his last 10.
Third time’s a charm, right?
Obviously, we’re not talking about the Dodgers finally getting their act together vs. Arizona, as much as L.A. could win straight while this play cashes.
Brandon Pfaadt faced the Dodgers twice in the regular season. Both outings came in August, and he gave up four-plus runs without getting through five frames in both instances. But one of those two starts came in Arizona, and the Diamondbacks managed to cover. Arizona also managed to survive Pfaadt’s 2 2/3-inning showing in the Wild Card Round, which was actually the surprising start to this run — especially given Pfaadt was opposite Corbin Burnes.
Lance Lynn will be on the bump for L.A., and he’s has done much better since he put on a Dodgers uniform. Still, a 4.36 ERA isn’t intimidating — especially when you see that 6.16 FIP looming behind. And while Lynn has a World Series ring and a ton of playoff experience, he gave up five runs over 3 2/3 innings in his last postseason start. Be that came a relief appearance, in which he gave up three runs and recorded just one out.
All that info might be enough to take Arizona straight up. For me, the value combined with systems in play around the run line make this my favorite play on the slate. RL underdogs coming off a win covered 59.16% of the time this season (407-281). Since 2021, RL underdogs have covered 62.1% of the time in playoff games (59-36).
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.