NFL Week 6 kicks off with the struggling Broncos heading to Kansas City to face the mighty Chiefs on a short week. With this spread opening up double-digits due to another pathetic loss for Denver, this is a tricky one to bet. Let’s go over some wagers that I do like that are available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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I’m getting on this article early because I had a rushing prop circled as a play. So I’ll put that one out now, and then loop back closer to the game if I wind up on any other plays.
It’s a tricky spot here, though. The Broncos are just dreadful, and now have to go on the road to a tough divisional opponent on a short week. I can’t put my money on Denver right now. That said, it’s a tough week to lay double-digits with the Chiefs. Travis Kelce is dinged up, and that becomes a bigger deal with the quick turnaround. Kansas City should get the win at home, but this one could be more of a grinder and just get out of there with the victory.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — 1.5-units
We have a huge home favorite here, facing the worst rush defense in the league on a short week, and the top pass-catcher for the home team suffered an ankle injury on Sunday. You cannot design a more perfect scenario for a rushing prop over.
Pacheco has been dominating the rushing attempts in Kansas City’s backfield, particularly the last few weeks — 15-20 carries in each of the last three games. He’s playing about 60% of the snaps, but is always on the field for running plays, unless we get deep into a blowout.
Although Pacheco has only eclipsed 71.5 yards once this season (20-115-1 at NYJ), he’s been close a couple of other times in tougher matchups. He went for 70 yards against the Jags, and while he finished with just 62 yards against the Bears, a 41-10 blowout worked against him.
Too big of a blowout too early in the game is the only red flag I can find here (outside of the obvious injury risk we run anytime we play an over on a prop). Pacheco was pulled from the Bears win for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who finished with a 15-55-1 line on a ton of late production.
But it can’t be overstated how much worse the Denver rush defense has been compared to virtually everyone else in the league. The Broncos are allowing 187.6 rushing yards per game — for comparison, the Bears are now allowing less than 100. Denver’s only been getting worse playing the run too — giving up 234 on the ground last week. That’s now 251.7 rushing yards allowed per game over the last three games, and 260.5 rushing yards allowed per game in road games.
Look for Pacheco to have a big night at Arrowhead on Thursday. We’ll potentially look at some alternates here as well.
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
