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What are the chances the Texans make the playoffs?

We discuss whether or not Houston Texans will make the AFC playoffs.

Houston Texans v New York Jets Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

The Houston Texans, thanks to rookie phenom quarterback C.J. Stroud, have become one of the stories of the 2023 NFL season.

But can Stroud, without another rookie sensation in Tank Dell and perhaps Nico Collins, be able to lead a plucky Houston team to the playoffs with the odds seemingly stacked against them? Let’s dig in.

Houston Texans current odds

DraftKings odds: TBD
DVOA playoff odds: 50.1%
ESPN FPI: 46.2%
NY Times odds: 35%

Upcoming Schedule

Week 15: @ Tennessee Titans
Week 16: vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 17: vs. Tennessee Titans
Week 18: @ Indianapolis Colts

The Texans certainly can — and might need — to run the table in the final four weeks of the season to secure a playoff spot. A lot of that will depend on the health of the Texans’ burgeoning offense.

Assuming Stroud is healthy, Houston will need him to play as well as he has so far despite being without rookie stud Tank Dell and potentially without their other top-tier receiver in Nico Collins.

Final record prediction: 11-6

Current AFC playoff standings

  1. Baltimore Ravens 10-3
  2. Miami Dolphins 9-4
  3. Kansas City Chiefs 8-5
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars 8-5
  5. Cleveland Browns 8-5
  6. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6
  7. Indianapolis Colts 7-6
  8. Houston Texans 7-6
  9. Denver Broncos 7-6
  10. Cincinnati Bengals 7-6
  11. Buffalo Bills 7-6


Call us optimistic, but we think that the Texans — health-permitting — will run the table and eke out a playoff spot in a competitive AFC Wild Card race.

We have the Texans finishing second in the AFC South at 11-6. They beat out the Broncos (10-7), Colts (10-7) and Bills (9-8) to earn the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC. That being said, if the Texans lose one of their four remaining tilts, they could be in big, big trouble in the playoff race.