GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 4.
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Stacks
Game Stack: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Matthew Stafford ($5,700) — Zack Moss ($6,000) — Tutu Atwell ($5,500) — Puka Nacua ($6,700)
The Rams and Colts matchup for Week 4 features two teams that are top 10 in plays per game and like to play at a fast pace. The Rams come in ranked 26th in defensive DVOA and are 24th in yards per carry against. That makes this a good spot to see more production from Zack Moss who has been seeing heavy usage through his first two weeks. Moss has taken 86% of the carries for the Colts over the last two weeks and still remains part of the passing game, having posted a 64% route participation rate. Anthony Richardson ($6,700) being back may hurt his usage a little but I fully expect the Colts to be somewhat cautious with Richardson who is coming off a concussion.
If we’re taking advantage of Moss’ cheap salary, it also makes sense to build around this game by going heavy on the passing attack for the Rams. Matthew Stafford has averaged over 40 pass attempts and 303 yards per game thus far in 2023 and while he’s yet to have a monster fantasy day, he’ll face a Colts secondary that ranks 22nd in yards per pass attempt against and has allowed the ninth-most passing yards against.
Stafford is also a very easy play to stack with because A.) he’s cheap and B.) he’s been throwing almost exclusively to two players. Puka Nacua is nearly a household name at this point and even after a down week against the Bengals, comes in with a 33% target share and average of 10 catches per game. Even if that last figure drops a bit, Nacua still seems very fairly priced for a player in a top-end matchup who has been hogging all of the short-to-intermediate work in a pass-first offense.
While Nucua is great, the player who could really put this stack over the top is Tutu Atwell. Atwell’s a 4.32 speedster who has shown far better receiving ability in 2023. He’s averaging 14.3 yards per catch and took a 28% team target share in Week 4, which led the team. Considering how soft the Colts’ secondary is (7th most receiving yards allowed to opposing WRs) it’s hard not to love this matchup and his price for Week 4 either.
All told, this should be a fast-paced game with both defenses having specific weaknesses we can attack with high-end players. It’s a solid game to stack for Week 4.
Quarterback: Russell Wilson ($5,800), Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
The Bears and Broncos game should produce points. On top of Denver being historically bad defensively through three weeks, you have a Bears defense that ranks 29th in defensive DVOA and will potentially be without three to four starters in their secondary. Russell Wilson may not be producing wins in Denver but his play in 2023 has taken a step upward. The veteran ranks 7th in EPA per play (.166) among all QBs in 2023.
He’s got a solid 6-2 TD to INT ratio and has also shown far better rushing upside, landing 56 yards on the ground in Week 2 against the Commanders. This game ultimately could produce a lot of back-and-forth scoring and Denver’s offense really hasn’t been that bad to start the year. Wilson’s sub $6K-salary is well worth taking advantage of this week, and you can make cheap Denver stacks with him if you correlate with his favorite WR (see below) as well.
Running Back
Top End: James Cook, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins ($6,300)
The Dolphins and Bills game is obviously going to be a big part of the slate in Week 4. Regardless of how you are constructing lineups, you will almost certainly want to get some exposure to this game in most lineup builds. Right now, James Cook looks like a solid way to exposure to the Bills side who are favored and have the second-highest implied team total on the slate at 28.25.
Cook has taken 55% of the carries for Buffalo and has also hauled in 10 catches on 13 targets. He’s got almost zero competition for targets from the RB position, and his red zone usage and goal-line work — while frustrating to date — should normalize as the season goes on. That’s all to say I expect Cook will start producing TDs soon. The Dolphins have already allowed three rushing TDs this year and have also allowed 4.74 yards per carry against —making this a good spot for Buffalo to potentially rely a little heavier on its ground game.
Low End: Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos ($4,900)
The Bears offense is in shambles, but there is good news on the way for Week 4 — specifically in the form of the Broncos defense. Denver ranks last in pretty much every defensive metric, defensively, and is coming off a game where it allowed 8.1 yards per carry to the Dolphins. With Justin Fields ($6,600) nearly incapable of completing forward passes in Luke Getsy’s offense, I fully expect the Bears to lean on the run this week.
Johnson has been coming on strong from a usage metric standpoint as well. The rookie has seen his snap share and rush percentage go up in every single game this year. With the Bears season on the verge of collapse, it really does make sense that there would be a bigger push towards Johnson as the primary back. Even if his usage rate stays the same, Johnson has been great with his opportunities thus far, averaging 5.3 yards per carry while converting on 10-of-11 targets. With his salary still under $5K, he could pay off in multiple ways this week against Denver, who is the best matchup an opposing RB can have on the slate at the moment.
Wide Receiver
Top End: Chris Olave New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,100)
Olave comes in already commanding a massive 33% of the target share for the Saints while accounting for 40% of the team’s total air yards through three weeks. The second-year player has essentially done everything but find the endzone in 2023, but that will have a great chance of changing against Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers come into this week on short rest and with both of their starting CBs banged up. As of Thursday, Jamel Dean still hasn’t practiced and Carlton Davis only returned to practice on Thursday. Depth corner Derrick White is also banged up and trending towards being out. At just $7.1K, Olave’s already done enough to deserve this high a salary but has the chance to put in a slate-breaking kind of day in Week 4 against a Bucs secondary that looks very overmatched at the moment.
Top Value: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears ($5,300)
Even with Jerry Jeudy ($6,600; questionable) back in the lineup, it’s been clear thus far that Sutton is the man for Denver in the passing game. Through three weeks, he leads the team with a 24% team target share and 28% air yards share. He’s also found the end zone twice already, which is a huge improvement after his lack of scores in 2022 that completely killed his fantasy value.
The new scheme implemented by Sean Payton clearly favors Sutton right now over Jeudy — who many people thought would be the one to thrive in this offense. While the Broncos and Bears are two of the worst teams in the NFL, it’s worth noting that the Broncos offense might be the best unit in this game, as they come in ranked 13th in offensive DVOA. Sutton should be able to get free against a Bears’ secondary that may be down as many as four starters with CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring), S Eddie Jackson (foot), CB Josh Blackwell (hamstring), all questionable, and cornerback Kyler Gordon already on IR. It’s a great spot to take advantage of his low salary.
Tight End: Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles ($3,100)
The Commanders will be getting Logan Thomas (concussion) back for this game as the veteran has been practicing in full all week. In his first game of the season, Thomas was the primary pass-catching TE for the Commanders and had a healthy 78% route participation rate and a 25% team target share. Thomas isn’t going to break free for any long TDs at his point but the plodding receiver has turned into a very reliable outlet TE.
For Week 4, Thomas will also have a matchup against the Eagles who have turned into one of the worst teams in the league in terms of defending against the TE position. Philadelphia has now allowed the most fantasy points on a per-game basis to opposing TEs and, overall, their pass defense ranks just 18th in yards per pass attempt against.
Thomas’s return has already been talked up this week by Sam Howell ($5,000), and at just $3.1K, he should have a great shot at returning value and potentially a lot more for DFS lineups.
Defense/Special Teams: Cleveland Browns ($2,800) vs. Baltimore Ravens
This is an extremely low price for the Browns who may have the best defensive unit in football at the moment. On top of shutting down all three of the quarterbacks they’ve faced to date, Cleveland has also been great at getting pressure and is coming in off a game where they were able to record 5 sacks and limit their opponent to just three points. While the turnovers haven’t come at a huge rate yet, you should expect that to change soon.
The Ravens may appear like a tough opponent but enter the week still overly reliant on Lamar Jackson’s legs — who rushed for over 100 yards in a losing cause against the Colts in Week 3. On top of being the top coverage team in the league (allowing just 3.9 yards per attempt against), the Browns have also allowed an incredible -6.0 yards rushing to opposing QBs on the season. Obviously, Jackson is his own entity in the rushing department but without his explosiveness carrying Baltimore on big plays, the Ravens seem likely to get bogged down a lot in this game. The Browns’ cheap salary makes them a great upside play for GPPs in Week 4.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
