I want to get excited about a rare 15-game featured MLB slate, yet there’s some weather concerns in the northeast that deserve our attention, specifically in New York and Baltimore. I’d tell Mets fans to pray for some clear skies, but there’s a good chance they’d rather not have to watch the team at this point. I understand.
Let’s dive into tonight’s action on the diamond.
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants, $11,000 - Unless the Giants have a tell on Gausman from his time with San Francisco a few years back, I just don’t see this going well for Gabe Kapler’s crew. It’s not that the Giants can’t hit, it’s simply that they strikeout a lot — like all the time. San Francisco comes into Tuesday in possession of the league’s fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.8%). That plays right into Gausman’s hands, as the Jays’ ace owns the third-highest qualified strikeout rate among starters (31.5%). The RHP also sports a pristine 2.70 FIP and an insane 35.5% strikeout rate while toeing the rubber at Rogers Centre in 2023. He’s quite good.
Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals, $6,900 - I think I’ve written up Woo in some capacity each of his last four starts. What can I say? The kid is awesome and, most importantly, consistently underpriced. The 23-year-old’s 5.06 ERA is still inflated from getting BABIP’d in his first career start, but the underlying numbers are immaculate. In 17.2 innings, Woo has registered a 2.46 xERA and a 33.8% strikeout rate. That ability to rack up swings and misses isn’t an aberration, either. Woo’s been a strikeout artist throughout all of his stops in the minors. He should cruise in a matchup with a Nationals lineup that has mustered an NL-low .129 ISO versus RHPs in 2023.
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, $6,200 - This is going to sound weird, but $6.2K almost seems cheap for Freeman at Coors Field, especially with Connor Seabold ($5,000) on the mound for the Rockies. You know, the Connor Seabold with a career 7.15 ERA. The one who has surrendered 2.17 home runs per nine to LHBs. That guy. Freeman has a 1.014 OPS in his 174 plate appearances away from Dodger Stadium in 2023. Expect him to add to his impressive road splits on Tuesday.
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants, $5,700 - The Jays haven’t faced many left-handed pitchers the last two seasons, but Bichette generally takes advantage of the rare opportunity. In 2023 specifically, the All-Star is slashing .351/.383/.596 with a 172 wRC+ in his 60 plate appearances within the split. Bichette also owns .482 expected wOBA against southpaws. Alex Wood ($6,100) is left-handed and will be in a bulk role for the Giants this evening. He’s allowed six earned runs in two of his last three appearances.
Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants, $3,500 - When punting at catcher the name of the game is upside. Basically, you’re trying to find an asset for less than $4K that has a chance to hit a long ball. It’s as simple as that. With that in mind, let’s talk some Danny Jansen. Toronto’s backstop has seven hits against LHPs in 2023 — five of them have left the park. That equates out to a .381 ISO and a .071 BABIP in his 45 plate appearances within the split. Upside and a regression candidate? He’s got it all.
Andy Ibanez, Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, $2,200 - Ibanez has hit third for the Tigers the last couple of times the team has faced a left-handed opponent, and it isn’t all that difficult to see why. The 30-year-old has managed a .368 ISO and a 140 wRC+ in his chances against lefties in 2023, and he’s a career .295 hitter within the split. The presence of Martin Perez ($5,700) and his 4.99 xERA certainly helps Ibanez’s viability, but the fact of the matter is, regardless of matchup, it’s not often you’re getting this level of production at this close to the minimum.
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, $6,500 - For as underwhelming as this season has been for San Diego, you can’t blame Tatis. Despite missing the first 20 games of 2023, Tatis appears to be on pace for his first-career 30/30 campaign. He’s also been destroying left-handed pitching. In 68 plate appearances within the split, the outfielder is slashing .316/.426/.684 with a 200 wRC+. 43-year-old Rich Hill ($6,300) and his 5.44 xERA don’t stand much of a chance.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, $5,900 - This wind is supposed to be blowing in at Wrigley tonight, but Jameson Taillon ($6,200) has been so bad against LHBs that I don’t care. The veteran has allowed left-handed opponents to compile a .632 slugging percentage and a .437 wOBA in 2023. That’s the direct result of surrendering 2.81 home runs per nine within the split. Harper hasn’t hit for power since his surgery, yet he does sport a 165 wRC+ versus RHPs this season.
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins, $3,300 - Whether you want to attribute the struggles Sandy Alcantara ($7,900) has had this season to BABIP or bad cluster luck, the fact of the matter is the reigning Cy Young award winner has a 5.54 ERA across his past eight starts. Woof. Durran, recently promoted to the Red Sox’s leadoff spot, has posted an .821 OPS and a 121 wRC+ against RHPs in 2023. He’s too cheap when you consider how poor Alcantara has looked the last two months.
Joey Wiemer, Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, $2,600 - There’s a time and place to use Wiemer and that scenario is solely when the Brewers are facing a lefty. In 64 plate appearances versus southpaws this season, Wiemer is hitting .306 with a .339 ISO and a 158 wRC+. David Peterson ($6,600) and his 8.08 ERA are being recalled from Triple-A to make tonight’s start for the Mets. Like I said above, it might just be better if it rains.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.