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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 13

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

San Francisco 49ers v Seattle Seahawks Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images

It’s December! What happened to November, October and September? They are all floating in the jet stream like burning embers. Dismembered. Man, time flies, as we will soon be enjoying playoff splendor. By now, we have sifted the contenders from the pretenders. I think we’ve always known which teams would surrender, but how about Denver? It’s truly been an adventure and now they are about to bump the Kansas City fender. Anyways, let’s get down to business and enter the DraftKings center, where PMR, snowflakes and flames are all situated in a blender. It will be an adventure for sure, but hopefully, I can render useful advice, not something that gets stamped “Return to sender.” May your lineups vault up the leaderboards, so much so that you can pay off all your lenders.

There are a bunch of teams on bye this week: BAL, BUF, CHI, MIN, NYG and LVR. In addition, SEA and DAL play on Thursday night, KC and GB play on Sunday night and CIN and JAX are on Monday night. That’s a lot of firepower.

DraftKings Sportsbook has four games with a total of at least 45 points: MIA/WAS (50), DET/NO (46), DEN/HOU (47.5) and SF/PHI (46.5). There are three games with a total at or below 40 - ATL/NYJ (34), CAR/TB (37) and CLE’/LAR (39.5). There are no double-digit favorites but MIA is favored by 9.5 points against WAS. Three games are within a field goal: ATL -25 over NYJ, IND -1 over TEN and SF -3 over PHI. There are six home dogs - WAS, NO, NE, NYJ, TEN and PHI

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, $6,100 — I initially had Tua Tagovailoa here, and I still like him because the Commanders are one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I settled on Purdy for a multitude of reasons, though. First, Tua is expensive and that game has the highest total on the slate by a wide margin, so the ownership will likely be very high. The Dolphins are also 9.5-point favorites, so it’s possible that the running backs score the majority of the touchdowns. Say Tua does go bonkers, can he put up a 40-DKFP performance like Josh Allen? Highly unlikely due to his limited rushing involvement. On the season, Tua has exceeded 20 DKFP six times, with two of those over 30. Purdy has gone for at least 20 DKFP six times as well. He has not gone over 30 but has a 29.72 performance on the resume. Is the $1,800 price difference worth it? I’m saying not. And here’s why.

The SF/PHI game should be a competitive affair, as both teams are very good and the spread is only three points with a healthy total of 46.5. Both teams do have good defenses, so it’s definitely within the range of outcomes that it becomes a grind-it-out affair. That said, I still think points will be scored. While SF is 13th-best in allowing teams to score in the red zone, PHI is 28th. Both teams have allowed the least rushing yards on the season, so more passing and more possible possessions.

PHI has allowed the fifth-most passing yards and second-most passing touchdowns. Now, PHI is 22nd in blitz rate but 7th in pressure rate. When pressured, Purdy has a paltry PFF grade of 52. He’s excellent when blitzed, posting a 70.1 grade. When not blitzed, it’s a 77.8 and, when kept clean, he is masterful with a 90.2 grade. So, if PHI can get pressure without blitzing, it could cause some problems. Here’s the thing, in two of the three games in which Purdy struggled this season, OT Trent Williams was out. He makes a huge difference. In addition, CLE and MIN are rated very highly in pass coverage. PHI is 25th.

Other Options – Jalen Hurts ($8,200), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900), Sam Howell ($6,200)

Value

Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, $5,300 — Minshew hasn’t been great since taking over for Anthony Richardson this season. He’s scored single digits in two starts and has exceeded 20 DKFP only once, although he put up 34.1 DKFP in that one! In the other three games, he landed in the 15 to 16 DKFP range. This week, he faces a Titans defense that has been good against the run but can be exploited through the air. Minshew faced the Titans in Week 5 after Richardson succumbed to injury. He went 11-of-14 for 155 yards.


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Running Back

Stud

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers, $6,300 — We have been attacking the Panthers’ rushing defense all season, so why stop now? Carolina has been an absolute sieve defending rushing attacks, allowing the 10th-most yards and most touchdowns. Since Week 7, White has scored at least 15 DKFP in every game with a high of 27.9. He’s dominating the running back snaps, is involved in the passing game and is the red zone back. Tampa Bay is 5.5-point home favorites, so the game script should be favorable.

Other Options – Raheem Mostert ($7,300), De’Von Achane ($6,900), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700), David Montgomery ($6,500), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000)

Value

Jaylen Warren/Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals, $5,400/$5,200 – Both of the Pittsburgh backs are viable this week. I think you can even play them together. Harris gets the slight edge in snaps, but Warren gets more involvement in the passing game and is the more explosive back. Both are utilized in the red zone. Arizona has allowed the second-most rushing yards, the sixth-most yards per carry and the second-most touchdowns. Pittsburgh is a 5.5-point home favorite.

Other Options – Zach Moss ($4,600)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, $6,200 — If I like Purdy, I have to like one of his receivers. That’s gonna be Samuel for me this week. The Eagles play zone defense 72.2% of the time, but rank only 21st when utilizing that defense. Brandon Aiyuk is the man-killer for the 49ers while Deebo thrives against zone. Prior to last week, Deebo had three receptions against man, compared to 24 against zone. His target rate spikes 5.1%. In addition, Deebo has rushing equity, having carried the ball 26 times this season and scoring three touchdowns. Deebo has scored double-digit DKFP six times this season with three of those over 20.

Other Options – Tyreek Hill ($9,600), AJ Brown ($8,800), Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), Tank Dell ($7,400), Devonta Smith ($7,300), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200), Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,100), Nico Collins ($6,800)

Value

Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins, $4,100 – The Commanders have been passing at the highest rate in the league, and they will likely be chasing points in this one. Samuel has received the third-most targets this season, but he led the team last week with 12, hauling in nine and hitting the century mark for the first time this season. Samuel has put up double-digit DKFP five times this season.

Other Options - Terry McLaurin ($5,500), Jahan Dotson ($4,600), Demario Douglas ($4,300), Jalen Guyton ($3,300)


Tight End

Stud

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos, $5,000 – It’s been a volatile season for Schultz, as he’s scored single-digit DKFP and received fewer than five targets five times this season. And the trend has not been friendly, as he’s received only two and three targets in the last two contests. That said, he’s scored five touchdowns this season and put up double-digit DKFP six times, with a high of 31. This week’s matchup is a good one, as the Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points on average to the position, which includes a league-leading six touchdowns.

Other Options – George Kittle ($6,200)

Value

Logan Thomas, Washinton Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins, $3,600 The issue with the Washington passing attack is the spread-it-out nature, which makes it difficult to isolate which player to target. We do want pieces, though, and Thomas is a viable way to get exposure. The ceiling is limited, as he hasn’t reached 100 yards receiving and has gone for double-digit DKFP only three times. He has received four, eight, five, eight, eight and six targets over the last six weeks, has scored three touchdowns on the season and has a high of 21.7 DKFP.

Other Options – Juwan Johnson ($3,400), Hunter Henry ($3,100), Chig Okonkwo ($3,100), Tyler Conklin ($3,000), Adam Trautman ($2,900)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Dolphins D/ST at Washington Commanders, $3,900 – Washington passes at the highest rate in the league and they will likely be chasing points in this one. That means plenty of dropbacks, which means more chances for sacks and interceptions. Howell has thrown 13 interceptions this season while taking 55 sacks, which leads the league in both categories. Impressive. Miami is fourth in pressure rate despite blitzing at the sixth-lowest rate. The unit has racked up nine interceptions, 38 sacks, five fumble recoveries and scored two touchdowns.

Other Options – Buccaneers D/ST ($3,600)

Value

Eagles D/ST vs. San Francisco 49ers, $2,800 – I don’t like any of the cheap defenses, so if paying down, I’d likely lean toward the Eagles. While I expect the 49ers to have success on offense, it’s within the range of outcomes that the Eagles put up some points on defense. Since San Francisco may have problems running the ball, and Philadelphia could put up points forcing the 49ers to maintain aggression, that could lead to more dropbacks for Purdy. And as mentioned in the Purdy section above, Purdy can struggle when pressured and the Eagles have the ability to put that pressure upon him without blitzing.

Other Options – Patriots D/ST ($2,400)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.