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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 12

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I give thanks to all the readers, all the editors and all my colleagues on the DK Live streets. Sitting in my seat has been filled with nothing but treats. Or for a carnivore like myself, the finest quality of meats. Enough with the positive speaks, as we have to try and conquer the god of defeats. So let us plug the leaks and check our techniques in order to rise and become elite, capturing the flames that the DK app secretes, feeling the heat then making sure the receipts show that no one else can compete.

There are no teams on bye this week, but with the Thanksgiving slate, the main slate will consist of 10 games, which will not include GB, DET, WAS, DAL, SF, SEA, MIA, NYJ, BAL, LAC, CHI and MIN.

DraftKings Sportsbook has two games with a total of at least 45 points: JAX/HOU (48.5) and BUF/PHI (48.5). There are four games with a total at or below 40 - PIT/CIN (34.5), NEP/NYG (33.5), CAR/TEN (36.5) and CLE/DEN (35). There are no double-digit favorites but KC is favored by 8.5 points over LVR. Six games are within a field goal: JAX -1.5 over HOU, PIT -1 over CIN, IND -2.5 over TB, ATL -1 over NO, DEN -2.5 over CLE and LAR -1 over ARI. There are five home dogs - HOU, CIN, NYG, ARI and LVR.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills, $8,300 — The floor/ceiling combo of Hurts is unmatched. Outside of opening week when he was held to 13.5 DKFP, Hurts has scored at least 21 DKFP in every contest but one, which was a 19.9 performance last week. He’s exceeded 25 DKFP six times with two of those over 30. The rushing is what provides such a high floor, as he has double-digit carries in six games with another two with nine rushes. He has scored 9 touchdowns on the ground. The Tush Push gods are having a great year! When aerial fireworks are needed, Hurts can provide in that area as well, having attempted at least 37 passes in five games while exceeding 300 yards passing three times. This game has a 48.5 total and tons of offensive talent on both sides of the ball, so there is definitely a path to a back-and-forth, fantasy goodies-filled affair.

Other Options – Josh Allen ($8,100), C.J. Stroud ($7,700) and Kyler Murray ($6,900)

Value

Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,100 — Minshew has scored single-digit DKFP in the last two games and exceeded 20 DKFP just once this season, but he went for 34.1 DKFP in that one! The last two opponents were NEP and CAR, both of whom can limit opposing passing games. The Colts are coming off their bye and face a Buccaneers team that is best attacked through the air. TB has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards and 3.7 yards per carry. Through the air, they have allowed the third-most passing yards and sixth-most touchdowns. Shane Steichen is an adaptable coach, so he will likely travel down the path of least resistance.


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Running Back

Stud

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans vs. Carolina Panthers, $6,600 — Henry has scored 5 and 3 DKFP in the last two games, so I get it if you want to puke at the sight of Henry written up here. That said, the Jags and Bucs both have good run defenses and the game script got away from Tennessee. This week sets up very well for Henry and the Titans. They are 3.5 favorites at home against an inept Panthers team, which has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards, 10th-highest yards per carry and second-most touchdowns. Prior to the last two weeks, Henry rolled off three games with 19 DKFP and has a high of 27.38 on the season.

Other Options – Travis Etienne ($7,100), D’Andre Swift ($6,800), Josh Jacobs ($6,700), Kyren Williams ($6,600), Bijan Robinson ($6,500), James Cook ($6,200), Isiah Pacheco ($6,200), Rachaad White ($6,100)

Value

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, $5,400 – Warren and Najee Harris ($4,900) are splitting duties essentially down the middle, so that’s a bummer. Warren is the more explosive back, though, and can house one on any given play, as evidenced by his 74-yard scamper last season. The Bengals have allowed the second-highest yards per carry and fifth-most rushing touchdowns. With no Joe Burrow, the Steelers are 1-point road favorites, so the game script could be favorable. Warren put up 26.5 and 22 DKFP in the last two games, as he went over 100 yards and scored a touchdown in each. Warren is all about efficiency, so it’s well within the range of outcomes that he ends up in the low teens. That said, he is involved in the passing game and does get red zone looks, so that mitigates some of the lack of volume.

Other Options – Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,800), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,000), Najee Harris ($4,900)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Tank Dell, Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,900 — Size ain’t nothing but a number. Dell is 5-foot 10 and 165 pounds but he’s gone for over 30 DKFP in two of the last three games. He’s received 10, 14 and 11 targets over the last three games, gone over 100 yards in two of those and scored a touchdown in all, with a two-touchdown performance three weeks ago. He is THE man for Stroud. Dell can score from anywhere on the field and has received six red zone targets over the last three weeks. He can match the production of the top receivers on the slate at a significant discount. In the first meeting between these teams in Week 3, Dell caught five of seven targets for 145 yards and a touchdown, good for 28.5 DKFP.

Other Options – AJ Brown ($9,000), Stefon Diggs ($8,800), Cooper Kupp ($8,000) if he plays, Puka Nacua ($7,600), Adam Thielen ($7,300), Michael Pittman ($6,800)

($6,900)

Value

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles, $3,600 – Philadelphia has one of the best run defenses in the league, so the Bills will likely attack via the air. Shakir has received more than four targets only once this season and he caught 3-of-4 for 115 yards last week, which included an 81-yard touchdown. The volume likely won’t be there, so the floor is very low. That said, since Week 8, Shakir has been playing in around 70% of the snaps so he’s been getting more comfortable and garnering the trust of both Allen and the coaching staff. This game has the highest total on the slate and could be a back-and-forth affair, which could provide a few more opportunities for Shakir. Just remember that he’s lower on the totem pole and is priced where he is for a reason.

Other Options - Calvin Ridley ($6,000), Christian Kirk ($5,700), Josh Downs ($4,800), Demario Douglas ($4,400), Justin Watson ($3,000)


Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, $8,200 – Is Taylor Swift going to attend this game? I need answers, Swifties!!! The game is in Vegas so I’m pretty sure she will be there. I hope because the stats for Kelce have been better with Swift in attendance! I kid I kid. I don’t care about that nonsense at all. All I know is that Kelce is essentially a WR1 and is Mahomes’ beau. He’s second in the league at the position with 81 targets and nine targets. Kelce has scored double-digit DKFP in every game but one and has a high of 38.9 on the season.

Value

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts, $3,200 This game could have a little action, as the spread is only 2.5 points with a 44 total. Otton hasn’t been a game-breaker by any means, exceeding 50 yards receiving only one this season, but he did score two touchdowns in a game and put up 24 DKFP. The Colts schematically funnel passing attacks toward the middle of the field and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends on average this season.

Other Options – Dalton Schultz ($5,400), Dalton Kincaid ($5,300), Evan Engram ($4,200)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Steelers D/ST at Cincinnati Bengals, $3,700 – No Joe Burrow for the Bengals, so Jake Browning ($5,200) will get the start, the first of his career. The Steelers blitz at the fifth-highest rate, are ninth in hurry rate and 10th in pressure rate. PFF has the Bengals at 26 for pass blocking.

Other Options – Browns D/ST ($3,800)

Value

Chiefs D/ST at Las Vegas Raiders, $3,100 – The Chiefs defense has been the story for the team all season, as no team has scored more than 24 points against them and they have held five teams under 20 points, with two of those under 10. The unit has racked up 36 sacks, seven fumbles, six interceptions and one touchdown. The 36 sacks are the third-most in the league. They are sixth in blitz rate, eighth in hurry rate and third in pressure rate. Aidan O’Connell ($5,000) has started four games and thrown six interceptions while being sacked 12 times.

Other Options – Titans D/ST ($3,400), Patriots D/ST ($3,200)

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.