Only two games on tonight’s slate. Back-to-backs are not an issue but there are some important injuries to know about. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are out for Golden State. Tyler Herro is out for Miami while Brooklyn won’t have Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas. No players are listed as questionable so things should go smoothly tonight...except it’s the NBA so a late scratch is always within the range of outcomes. Keep track of all the updates at DK Live.
DraftKings Sportsbook has MIA favored by 3.5 points at home over BKN. The total is 215.5. OKC is a road favorite over GS by 2.5 points. The total is 226.5.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors ($10,600) – Shai has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. He’s averaging a slate-high 1.59 FP/Min and has failed to score at least 50 DKFP only twice while going for over 60 three times. Shai is the engine of the Thunder offense and is garnering a 32.1 usage rate on the season. He literally contributes in every statistical category and has played at least 37 minutes in five of the last six games.
Other Options - Chris Paul ($6,700)
Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($4,600) – Curry missed the last game and, while Paul got the start, Podziemski played 39 minutes and produced 23 points, seven rebounds, five assists and a steal. That was good for 41.25 DKFP. Another 10x performance shouldn’t be expected, especially since Klay got ejected two minutes into the game, but Podziemski should get close to 30 minutes in this one and he’s averaging a respectable 1.05 DKFP per minute on the season.
Other Options - Kyle Lowry ($5,600), Josh Richardson ($4,800), Cason Wallace ($4,500)
Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat ($8,000) – When Bridges got traded to Brooklyn at the end of last season, he was receiving a usage rate in the mid-30 range. This season with Ben Simmons back in the mix, the usage rate has plummeted to the mid-20s. Simmons has missed five of the last six games and Bridges has started to pick things up recently with usage rates of 39.5 and 32.2 in the two most recent contests. That’s translated to 39.75 and 48.75 DKFP. Early numbers show Jimmy Butler ($8,600) with a higher projection but with four times the ownership. Butler has exceeded 40 DKFP only three times this season, the same as Bridges. I’ll take the $600 discount and lower ownership here.
Other Options - Jimmy Butler ($8,600)
Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets ($4,500) – Over the last three games, Jaquez has played 33, 32 and 38 minutes, attempting 13, 10 and 17 shots. That translated to 24.75, 31 and 31.25 DKFP. Minutes are gold and it looks like Jaquez is becoming an entrenched member of the rotation. He’s only averaging 0.84 DKFP per minute, so those minutes are very important for him.
Other Options - Cameron Johnson ($5,900), Duncan Robinson ($5,800), Haywood Highsmith ($4,600)
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets ($9,200) – Adebayo has been on a tear recently, putting up 49.75, 54.25, 61.25, 52.75 and 73 DKFP. On the season, he’s averaging 1.36 FP/Min while averaging 34.7 minutes per game. It’s not too difficult getting both Bam and Shai into a lineup so...
Other Options - Chet Holmgren ($7,500), Nic Claxton ($6,100)
Dario Saric, Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($5,200) – Saric opened the season priced at $3,400. Slowly but surely, the price ticked up as he was getting 20 minutes of run on the regular and making it rain from downtown. His role as a big man, floor-spacer has been invaluable for the Warriors. On Tuesday, he made his second start on the season and played 32 minutes. That may have had something to do with the matchup, as the Warriors played the Timberwolves twice in three days, with Saric playing well in the first meeting and taking advantage of Gobert on offense. There’s risk here for sure as Saric may get closer to 20 minutes instead of 30, and he is priced fairly now. I don’t like any of the other options below $6,000 and the last time these teams met, Saric went for 35.5 DKFP. That was a game with Curry, though, and the final score was 141-139.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.