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GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 5.
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Stacks
Game Stack: Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
Joe Burrow ($6,200) — Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900) — Tyler Boyd ($4,500) — James Conner ($5,800)
Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow are either the most overpriced duo or the most undervalued for Week 5, based on what should be a premiere matchup with the Cardinals. So far, through four weeks, three of the four Cardinals games have gone over the total as the team is giving up plenty of yards through the air (30th in pass DVOA) but also running the ball well themselves (fourth in yards before contact as a team). In essence, a lot of their games are turning into shootouts which is great for fantasy.
I don’t need to rehash the Joe Burrow start. He’s last in yards per attempt and if he keeps playing the way he has been, he’ll likely be a bust again. There were positive signs after the Titans loss as Burrow stated on Monday that he’s the healthiest he’s been all season after a game and there were videos of him showing increased mobility early this week as well. Arizona is just 29th in yards per attempt against and allowed an obscene 24.66 yards per catch to Brandon Aiyuk (6-148) last week.
Ja’Marr Chase, for his part, has not been the issue. He’s converted 19 of his last 24 targets into catches and should find more room against this thin secondary. With Tee Higgins (questionable) potentially missing this game, this should also be a great spot for the perennially underrated Tyler Boyd to bust out. Boyd is an oversized slot receiver and over the last two weeks, his 22% target share has actually surpassed Higgins's 19% target rate. Chase will have a great chance at a monster volume day but Boyd — who posted two games last year with 100+ yards and a TD — will have a great shot at being one of the best overall values on the slate in this spot, especially if Higgins is out.
I mentioned the Cardinals offense already and I fully expect them to make this a game on Sunday. Arizona is fifth in yards before contact as a team this season, showcasing the ability of their offensive line to make holes in the run game. James Conner is averaging a stout 5.1 yards on the season and will face a Bengals defense that ranks third last (5.1) in yards per carry against. Conner has taken 14 or more carries in three of four games this season and if this game stays even relatively close, he should be in for another big workload this week. Pairing him with the Bengals passing attack gives us great exposure to both sides of this game which has a decent 45.0 game total and a close point spread (3.0), which suggests plenty of offensive plays for both sides.
Quarterback: Daniel Jones ($5,800), New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Avert your eyes Danny Dimes haters, the breakout is coming. The Miami Dolphins' defense is one of the more underrated, terrible units in the league right now. They enter this week’s game with New York 27th in yards per pass attempt against and 26th in yards per play allowed. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 21.26 fantasy points per game (without bonuses included) and have complied a 71% completion rate against the Dolphins this season.
For his part, Jones has been great at saving fantasy days with his legs. He’s averaged 8.5 rushes per game and logged over 40 yards on the ground in three of four starts. While Saquon Barkley (questionable) being back could cut into that upside a little, the threat of Barkley also likely makes this a better spot for Jones as a passer, as it will help alleviate some of the pressure from a Miami defense that does rank 12th in pressure rate. Jones has been mostly terrible thus far, but this is a good spot for him and the entire Giants passing offense to bounce back for a decent game. Don’t be shocked if he surprises to the upside again in Week 5.
Running Back
Top End: D’Andre Swift ($6,000), Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams vs. Eagles game has a 49.5 game total with Philadelphia having a 27.0 point implied team total — third highest on the slate. Getting some exposure to the Eagles offense should be a priority on this slate and attacking with parts of the Philly running game is a great way to achieve that goal. The Rams are just 24th in yards per carry against and are a bottom-five team in terms of defensive DVOA against the run as well.
Swift has taken over as the primary ball carrier for the Eagles and while he got bottled up somewhat against the Commanders, that was more a product of the gameplan for Washington, who chose to sell out against the run and live with getting annihilated by AJ Brown. The Rams likely won’t choose the same fate and won’t have the personnel to completely shut down this run game anyway. Swift — who is averaging 5.7 yards per carry over the last two seasons — should bounce back in a big way this week against the Rams.
Low End: Breece Hall ($5,400), New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Breece Hall is the classic boom-or-bust play at RB this week. He’s averaged just 9.5 carries per game but remains one of the most explosive runners in the game. Dating back to last season, he now has a run of 16 yards or more in eight of his last 11 starts. Hall’s appeal this week is really two-fold. First, he’s facing the Denver Broncos who, as we know, are a historically bad defense. Through four weeks, they rank last in overall defensive DVOA and have allowed 5.6 yards per carry against — second worst in the league.
Second, Hall’s head coach Robert Saleh declared that any workload restrictions Hall had in the first four games are now over. That means that we should see his usage get ramped up significantly soon and it’s not hard to see the Jets wanting to get Hall more touches in this game, especially with Dalvin Cook (2.5 yards per carry) looking cooked through four starts. This one requires trusting a little coach-speak, but if Hall does take over as the primary ball carrier, a special fantasy day may develop in Week 5.
Wide Receiver
Top End: George Pickens ($5,200), Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
The top end of the WR board looks fairly straightforward this week with both Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson ($9,400) looking like roster locks. However, if you are looking for second WRs to pair with your studs, or simply looking to build out a contrarian lineup with lower-priced WRs, then Pickens is a good target. He’s coming off a poor week, which will have him lower in sentiment for the majority of DFS players but remains an elite talent in terms of creating explosive plays.
For his career, Pickens has only gone without a 20+ yard catch six times — a few of those games were at the start of his rookie season — and he’ll face a Ravens secondary that may be starting a rusty Marlon Humphrey (foot) at cornerback. The entire Steelers offense is hard to trust but Pickens’ 25% target share and 38% team air yards share are elite metrics that suggest more big days will be coming soon. He’s an elite boom-or-bust roster at just $5.2K for Week 5.
Top Value: Terrace Marshall Jr. ($3,600), Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
The Panthers enter this game against the Lions as +10.0 underdogs on the DraftKings Sportsbook and struggling to find any rhythm with their offensive game. The semi-bright spot over the past two weeks has been the emergence of Terrace Marshall Jr., who actually managed to pry the attention of Bryce Young away from Adam Thielen in Week 4, as he ended the game against Minnesota with a 31% target share —despite just a 65% route rate.
The Panthers could insert rookie Jonathan Mingo ($3,100 - concussion) back into a heavier role but really have nothing to lose by giving Marshall more looks, and he has certainly outperformed Mingo from an efficiency perspective. With Marshall likely to be in a very positive game script for fantasy purposes, his $3.6K salary looks extremely appealing for this Sunday.
Tight End: Tyler Higbee ($4,100), Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Higbee has seen his route rate (90%) and target share (20%) spike in the last two games. The veteran has gone for 5+ passes and 60+ yards in each of his last two contests and now enters a premier matchup with the Eagles. Philadelphia has been poor in coverage all season and has been particularly bad against TEs, allowing the fourth most fantasy points against to opposing TEs.
It does sound like Cooper Kupp ($8,600) will be returning to action this week for the Rams but his presence may have more of a negative effect on the Rams young WRs than Higbee — at least for this week anyway. Ultimately, Los Angeles is a pass-heavy team (10th in pass rate), and with the Eagles' defense struggling, it’s a good time to look to Higbee as a low-owned, high-upside play at TE in GPPs for Week 5.
Defense/Special Teams: Tennessee Titans ($2,400) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Titans don’t jump off the tongue for most people when talking about elite defenses but they do enter this game ranked 12th in overall defensive DVOA and once again have been excellent against the run — leading the league in yards per carry against (3.0). Forcing an inaccurate rookie quarterback into more throws may be exactly the kind of thing that trips up Anthony Richardson ($7,000) in his rookie season and the Titans' secondary and pass rush are coming into this divisional game off their best performance of the year, where they allowed just 139 passing yards and three points against to the Bengals.
A lot of this pick comes down to price — as Tennessee is the third cheapest D/ST on the board this week — but they do have a great defensive line that has already created a few sack-fumble opportunities on the year as well. With their secondary now being in a good spot to potentially help out with INTs, this makes for a great spot to deploy the Titans in GPPs where their salary will allow you to keep the rest of your lineup flexible.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.