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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 6

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Only the Packers and Steelers are on bye this week, so the impact will be mitigated because the fantasy prospects from those teams are bleak. Let’s be real, they reek! On the flip side, the Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys and Chargers are off the main slate, so it’s time to turn up the Gang Starr and Check the Technique in order to make lineups that are unique and make us shriek. Sure, even in Greek that is antique because we don’t have to consider rostering Zeke. In this piece, I will dig into the deepest creek while trying to plug my leaks so that I may assist in unlocking this slate’s mystique, hopefully elevating you to the heights of the tallest peak.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games with a total of at least 45 points: CAR/MIA (48.5), SEA/CIN (45.5), IND/JAX (45.5) and ARI/LAR (48.5). There is one game with a total below 40 - SF/CLE (37.5). There is one double-digit favorite - MIA -13.5 over CAR. Six games are within a field goal: MIN -2.5 over CHI, CIN -3 over SEA, NO -1.5 over HOU, ATL -2.5 over WAS, LVR -3 over NE and DET -3 over TB. TEN, CLE, CHI, HOU, NYJ and TB are home dogs.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


Quarterback

Stud

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals, $6,100 — This game is tied for the highest total on the slate with the Rams implied to score the second-most points, behind the Miami Dolphins. While Miami has shown that they will sweep the leg, they shouldn’t be pushed by the Panthers’ offense this week. The Cardinals, on the other hand, could present some problems for the Rams’ defense, which could lead to maintained aggression by Sean McVay.

The matchup is a lovely one for Stafford, as the Cardinals have allowed the fifth-most air yards, the 10th-most YAC, have the third-lowest blitz rate and second-lowest pressure rate. PFF has the Cardinals defense at 27th for pass rush and 30th in coverage.

Stafford should sling it around 40 times in this one, maybe more depending on how the game goes. Currently, Stafford is sporting a 2.5% touchdown rate. There has been only one other time in his 15-year career that he’s had a sub-3% touchdown rate - 2021 in Detroit. His career average is 4.6%, so it’s only a matter of time before he starts racking up some touchdowns.

Other Options – Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600), Joe Burrow ($6,300)

Value

Josh Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, $5,200 — Dobbs curiously only rushed three times for one yard last week. In the prior three games, he racked up 48, 55 and 41 yards on the ground. The Rams have seen quarterbacks rush 32 times for 137 yards and three touchdowns against them. The number of attempts is the second-highest. Granted, they faced Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson, but still. Dobbs should get back to utilizing his legs more in this one. In addition, James Conner is out, so there could be more usage. The Rams will likely score a ton of points in this one, so Dobbs should have to be aggressive. Against the 49ers and Giants in Week 2 and 4, Dobbs put up 25.22 and 23.4 DKFP while having to chase points. A similar outcome is within the range of outcomes this week.

Other Options – Brock Purdy ($5,600), Gardner Minshew ($5,000)


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Running Back

Stud

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers, $6,600 — The Dolphins have the highest implied total on the slate at 31, so points will be scored. Here’s why I think the run game will be the focal point. The Dolphins are favored by a whopping 13.5 points and the Panthers defense is already predicated on limiting big plays. They have allowed the seventh-lowest aDOT, 10th-fewest air yards and seventh-fewest YAC, so their fundamental structure is already geared towards limiting the explosive Dolphins passing attack. They have also allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt to opposing run games, so that is where the path of least resistance lies. With De’Von Achane out, and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,300) just getting activated, Mostert should receive around 20 opportunities in this one. There is some risk that he loses carries if the game gets out of hand, but hopefully, he would’ve been a big reason why.

Other Options – David Montgomery ($7,300), Travis Etienne ($7,100), Alvin Kamara ($6,800), Kyren Williams ($6,500)

Value

Emari Demercado, Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, $4,900 – Filling in for James Conner last week after he succumbed to injury, Demercado garnered all the snaps and finished with 10 rushes for 45 yards and a touchdown. He also caught one of three targets for 12 yards. The competition on the depth chart looks sparse, so Demercado should see most of the touches at the position this week. The Rams haven’t been bad in rush defense this season, but they also haven’t been Tony the Tiger Greeeeeeeat!!! either. The game environment could be a fantasy-friendly one with Demercado possibly seeing plenty of good opportunities.

Other Options – Keaontay Ingram ($4,500) if healthy, Chuba Hubbard ($4,300), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,300), Damien Williams ($4,000)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals, $9,000 — After missing the first four games of the season, Kupp stepped right in last week and played in 95% of the snaps while garnering a team-leading 12 targets. As I mentioned in the Stafford section above, the game environment and matchup should be fantasy-friendly. He’s expensive but the floor is incredibly high and we know that Kupp can access a ceiling that is rivaled by few.

Other Options – Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300), Puka Nacua ($8,000), Chris Godwin (6,900), Calvin Ridley ($6,700), Chris Olave ($6,600), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300)

Value

Brandon Powell, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, $3,000 – In the first four weeks of the season, Powell played a total of five snaps. In Week 5, though, that number jumped to 22 due to the injury suffered by Justin Jefferson. He garnered a whopping six targets during that time. The Vikings had to be aggressive because they were playing the Chiefs, so the game script could be different in Chicago, especially since there is a chance of rain. That said, the Vikings still lead the league in passing rate at 70.45%. Powell is the stone minimum and, despite running the 40 in only 4.6 seconds, the 6.88 3-cone time is excellent and he should get opportunities in this one.

Other Options – Adam Thielen ($5,900), Jakobi Meyers ($5,800), Jordan Addison ($5,700), Marquise Brown ($5,300), Josh Downs ($4,100)


Tight End

Stud

TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, $6,600 – Hockenson was the second-leading target-getter for the Vikings with Justin Jefferson on the field. With Jefferson now out, Hockenson will likely be elevated to numero uno. The matchup is a good one, as the Bears have allowed the third-most receptions to the position.

Other Options – Dallas Goedert ($4,800), Evan Engram ($4,500), Hunter Henry ($4,400)

Value

Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons, $3,500 Thomas received eight targets in Week 1 but then suffered a concussion in Week 2. In his return game against the Eagles in Week 4, he caught three targets for 41 yards. Last week, though, he looked healthy, hauling in nine of 11 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. The matchup this week is a good one, as the Falcons have allowed the second-most receptions to the position.

Other Options – Zach Ertz ($3,600), Cade Otton ($3,200)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Dolphins D/ST vs. Carolina Panthers, $3,500 – It’s going to be hot and muggy in Miami this weekend, with temperatures expected to be around 89 degrees with rain. Oh, and the Dolphins are expected to score the most points on the slate, so the Panthers will not be able to turtle up. PFF rates the Panthers’ pass protection at 28th while the Dolphins’ pass rush is at 6th. Miami is also rated at 8th for coverage. The Dolphins are sixth-best in hurry rate, seventh-best in quarterback knockdown and third in pressure rate. Bryce Young ($5,100) has thrown four interceptions on the season while taking 12 sacks.

Other Options – 49ers D/ST ($4,000), Eagles D/ST ($3,800), Dolphins D/ST ($3,500)

Value

Bears D/ST vs. Minnesota Vikings, $2,500 – The Bears defense stinks. They have allowed 12 touchdowns, second-most in the league and generate the fourth-lowest pressure rate. That said, they are at home in what could be a sloppy affair with rain expected. Then there’s Kirk Cousins ($7,100), who is prone to WTF?! games from time to time. Who knows how he deals without having his blankie in Justin Jefferson?

Other Options – Lions D/ST ($2,700), Bengals D/ST ($2,900)

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.