Below you’ll find my NFL Week 5 picks, starting with three plays being published on Monday. I’ll update the article throughout the week, so be sure to check back for updates and new plays as games near kickoff.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1pm ET)
I’m far from a fan of this Steelers team, but they catch the Colts in a pretty great spot on Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh is off a close loss on Thursday Night Football in Cleveland, falling to 2-2 on the season. Aaron Rodgers made plenty of mistakes, taking five sacks and tossing two interceptions. But the Steelers also continued to show some momentum on offense, throwing for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns for the second consecutive week. Jaylen Warren also rushed for 220 total yards over the past two games combined.
A matchup against this Colts defense should present a spot to continue that success. Indy ranks 27th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, and 29th in passing yards allowed. While the Steelers made the quick trip home from Cleveland to start 10 days of prep for the matchup with the Colts, Indy was heading over to London to face the Commanders.
While the Colts got their second consecutive win to improve to 2-2, it wasn’t all that impressive. Washington was down to its third string QB, and Indy didn’t have to do much to pull away. Daniel Jones was extremely pedestrian, finishing 19-of-34 for 143 yards and an interception.
Now the Colts come straight back from an international game with no bye, and go on the road to face a solid Pittsburgh defense. That sets up a really tough spot for Indianapolis. The Commanders and Texans combined for 30 total points in the games they lost to the Colts. Meanwhile, the Steelers have scored 54 total points over the past two games, and face arguably the softest defense they’ve seen yet. Good spot for Rodgers and company to get a win at home.
NFL Pick: Steelers ML (-135)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
It’s been a magical start to the season for the 49ers in many ways. San Francisco is 4-0, Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level, and the offensive line is yet to give up a sack. The defense has held three of four opponents to 14 points or less. What hasn’t been magical is the injuries.
Stop me if you’ve heard this story before, but the Niners are decimated by injuries at multiple positions. Each week of the season we see more key pieces wind up on the injury report, and it has to catchup to them at some point. I’ll say this is that point.
Seattle’s defense has been dominant to this point, allowing the fewest passing yards in the NFL, and ranking just outside the top-10 in rushing yards allowed. The Seahawks have been getting to the QB, and have forced seven turnovers in two home games this season. This will be the 49ers’ toughest task yet, and its a defense we’ve seen them struggle with recently.
Remember, these teams played three times last season if we included the postseason matchup. San Francisco averaged 8.7 points per game in those meetings. This isn’t the same dominant team that won the Super Bowl last season offensively, but I expect Seattle to be able to accomplish enough. The Seahawks have scored 30 or more points in each of the two games since Sam Darnold returned to the lineup. Expect Seattle’s defense to set the tone at home and put the Niners to the test here.
NFL Pick: Seahawks -2.5 (-120)
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (Monday 8:15pm ET)
After a brutal collapse in Denver on Sunday Night Football in Week 3, combined with some tough bounces and questionable calls, the Rams needed to get a win in Philadelphia last week to keep the season on track. I was expecting them to come out and dominate, but the Eagles jumped out to a 20-10 lead at halftime.
Staring down a 1-3 start to the season, the Rams dug deep and won the second half 14-0 to get the win and cover. After some wild travel to start the season, this team now has a chance to settle in. These guys have flown to Australia, back home to Los Angeles, then on the road to Denver and Philly, and the season isn’t even a month old.
Now the Rams get three of their next four at home, and the road trip is a short one to Las Vegas at the end of the month. They also get the long week to prepare to host the Bills on Monday Night Football. I expect the Rams to take that second half momentum from last week and carry it into this next stretch of games.
While the Bills are looking to bounce-back from a tough loss at home to the Patriots, I don’t believe this is the spot they get it. Buffalo has some issues. It was a dropped interception from losing in Week 1 to the 0-4 Texans. The Bills caught the Lions in a perfect spot in Week 2, opening up their new stadium against a team coming off an overtime game to go on the road in a short week. Not to mention, the Lions look abysmal on defense. Then Buffalo had to dig out of a hole at home to comeback and beat a Chargers team that’s also now 0-4.
Tie all that together, and the Bills’ three wins are over teams that are a combined 2-10, and the loss came to a Patriots offense that had looked broken the first three weeks of the season. Matthew Stafford and his weapons should have a field day in this matchup, and I trust the Rams on defense to be able to do just enough to slow Josh Allen down on the other end.
NFL Pick: Rams -2.5 (-118)
