Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele finds himself in the middle of both the playoff and Cy Young chase and will look to make a statement on Saturday at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs (-135)
The Cubs are 12-1 in Steele’s last 13 starts with Steele allowing three earned runs or fewer in every one of those starts. For the season, he’s posted a 2.55 ERA and 2.98 fielding independent.
Steele also leads qualifying National League starters with just 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed to go with 9.1 strikeouts to two walks per nine innings this season.
The Diamondbacks counter with Merrill Kelly, who has always had some rather large home and road splits throughout his career and those have continued this season with a 2.81 ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed and a .189 opponents batting average while at homecompared to a 3.69 ERA on the road with 1.2 home runs per nine innings and a .266 opponent batting average on the road this season.
Overall, Kelly has a fielding independent that is more than a half point higher than his ERA, posting a 3.22 ERA and 3.76 fielding independent with a career-high 3.2 walks per nine innings and has to shut down a Cubs offense that is second in the National League with nearly 5.9 runs per game since the All-Star break.
The Cubs offense has ascended thanks to the amount of balance in it with a starting lineup that has at least eight players with an on-base percentage above .310 with Patrick Wisdom often being the lone exception on days in which he starts.
Since the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks offense has trended in the wrong direction, ranking 20th in runs per game with just under 4.3 and are just 26th in home runs in that span.
The Diamondbacks bullpen also has an ERA more than two points higher than the Cubs since July 1 with the Cubs ranking eighth in the league in bullpen ERA at 3.70 and Arizona ranking 27th with a 5.76 bullpen ERA.
With both the pitching and hitting advantage belonging to the Cubs, they will bounce back on Saturday after being shut out in the series opener.
The Play: Cubs -135
