DJ Lagway became Baylor’s first 100-yard rusher of the season last Saturday. A quarterback reaching that milestone in November says plenty about the Bears’ difficulties moving the ball on the ground. His 119 yards against Iowa State also introduced something BYU must address with starting linebacker Isaiah Glasker unavailable. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the BYU Cougars and the Baylor Bears.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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BYU vs. Baylor prediction, preview
The Cougars have ruled out Glasker, cornerback Evan Johnson and tight end Roger Saleapaga. Lagway’s ability to keep the ball places another decision on the linebackers, particularly when Gavin Freeman is working into the short passing game. Freeman has led Baylor in receptions in all nine games. Against Iowa State, Lagway completed 16 of 28 passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns while carrying 13 times, expanding an offense that had too often needed its passing game to rescue unsuccessful early downs.
Baylor still ranks 111th nationally in offensive success rate. BYU ranks ninth in preventing explosive plays, so the Bears need sustained contributions from Lagway’s legs rather than another afternoon built around isolated long gains. The linebacker and cornerback absences make that task more manageable, though the Cougars’ season-long defensive structure remains the better reason to favor them outright.
Baylor’s defense has a much stronger foundation for keeping this within one score. The Bears have collected 37 sacks, and their opponent-adjusted passing defense ranks eighth in EPA allowed. BYU ranks fourth in sack rate allowed, placing its protection directly across from the strength of Baylor’s front. If the Bears can hurry Bear Bachmeier without surrendering escape lanes, his eight interceptions suggest opportunities to interrupt a drive even when the initial rush fails to finish him.
Bachmeier has also rushed for 395 yards and seven touchdowns. Baylor must account for him when its edge defenders attack upfield. LJ Martin returned against Utah with seven carries for 19 yards and a touchdown; an expanded workload would help BYU avoid placing every difficult conversion on its quarterback. Walker Lyons has become especially important with Saleapaga unavailable, while Legend Glasker and Kyler Kasper can punish a defense that commits too many bodies to the backfield.
Baylor vs. BYU pick, best bet
The Bears’ own defensive performance last week illustrates the danger. Iowa State accumulated 472 yards, including 216 rushing yards, despite Baylor’s three sacks and nine tackles for loss. Disruption can coexist with long gains conceded. BYU should find enough of those openings to reach the high 20s, especially if Martin handles more work.
Baylor’s travel delay adds another disadvantage: kickoff moved to 7 p.m. ET after the Bears’ departure was postponed until Saturday. I expect BYU to win at home. The eight-and-a-half-point cushion remains attractive because Lagway’s expanded rushing involvement can sustain enough offense, and Baylor’s pass rush can erase a couple of Cougar possessions. A four-point game leaves the Bears comfortably inside the number.
Best bet: Baylor +8.5 (-105)
Projected score: BYU 27, Baylor 23.
Best Bet: Baylor +8.5 (-105) at BYU
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