The Miami Dolphins looked like they were in the driver’s seat to win the AFC East in 2023. With three games to go, they were 10-4. The Dolphins picked up a big win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15, but back-to-back losses to the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens saw them drop from the No. 2 seed to the No. 6, giving the Bills the division title. Miami then had to play in that frigid playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs, which resulted in their first-round exit.
As the Dolphins look for a better outcome this year, let’s preview how their players will fare for 2024 fantasy football leagues.
Tua Tagovailoa
Is there a more disrespected quarterback than Tagovailoa? Sure, there are health concerns with his history of concussions, but he played in all 17 games last year. Tagovailoa finished with 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The turnover number needs to come down, but the conversation needs to be had that he is one of the better pocket passers in the league. His receiving corps is one of — if not the — best in the league between Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Odell Beckham Jr.
Tagovailoa finished last season as the overall QB9, but he feels like a fantasy football afterthought. This may be because he isn’t a dual-threat quarterback that fantasy football managers fall in love with, as he ran for only 74 yards with no touchdowns. Tagovailoa finished between Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield, who added stats on the ground to inflate their numbers more than Tagovailoa did. Now that he is a year removed from his injuries, if Tagovailoa is allowed to scramble more, plus with the addition of OBJ, he should be a QB1 this season and be worth starting each week despite his QB13 average draft position (ADP).
Raheem Mostert
Mostert played a complementary role in his first season with Miami in 2022, but something clicked with the veteran or with how he was used last season. He played in 15 games last year and finished the season with 1,012 yards and a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns. Mostert brought in 25 of his 32 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns through the air. The tricky part of Mostert is that Miami was very interested in using backup running back De’Von Achane early last season. Mostert likely wouldn’t have had the season he did without Achane picking up an injury in Week 5.
Still, Mostert finished as the overall RB2 in half-PPR scoring behind Christian McCaffrey. Another year older, the veteran running back’s ADP dropped to the RB28 behind guys like Jaylen Warren and Jonathon Brooks. Fantasy managers are clearly worried that either Tagovailoa will pass more, given the influx to the receiving corps, or that they will be more run-heavy. I share the same concerns, but still think he should be a backend RB2, so he comes with some value at this draft spot.
De’Von Achane
The flashes that Achane showed when healthy were explosive and fun. He played in 11 games and carried the ball 103 times for 800 yards and eight touchdowns. Achane had 27 receptions for an additional 197 yards and three touchdowns. In his second career game, he had 18 carries for a whopping 203 yards and two touchdowns. Achane added 30 yards and two touchdowns through the air in Miami’s 70-20 route of the Denver Broncos.
Fantasy managers expect Achane to take over the backfield; his ADP reflects that. The second-year back is being drafted as the overall RB8 in the second round of 12-team drafts. If Mostert forces more of a split backfield, Achane could be a bust with such a high draft pick. I’d feel more comfortable having him as the RB12-14 just because of the uncertainty of his usage in the backfield, and my thinking Mostert will see more work than expected.
Tyreek Hill
Hill led the NFL in receiving yards last year with 1,799 on 119 receptions. That was his second consecutive year with that many catches, and they were the second-most in the NFL behind only CeeDee Lamb, who had 135. Hill was tied for the league lead with 13 receiving touchdowns and should be one of the top two wide receivers drafted in fantasy football.
It will vary by platform which receiver is listed higher, but technically, Lamb’s ADP is the WR1, followed by Hill at WR2 in half-PPR leagues. You really can’t go wrong with either pick, and both will go early in the first round. Christian McCaffrey should be the No. 1 overall pick, and Hill is a solid contender to be on his heels at No. 2.
Jaylen Waddle
Waddle is heading into the fourth year of his NFL career with a shiny three-year contract extension. He hasn’t been able to get back to his reception total that set a rookie record in 2021, but that doesn’t mean he has lost all productivity. Waddle is the No. 2 receiving option in the offense behind Hill but still has plenty of work carved out for him. He played in 14 games last year and came down with 72 receptions for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns.
Waddle finished the season as the overall WR34 in half-PPR scoring, but that was the third-highest finish for a wideout who played in fewer than 15 games. Fantasy football managers are recognizing his consistency. Waddle is one of the more desirable WR2s in the league if he can stay healthy, and he is being drafted as the overall WR15 in half-PPR scoring. He’s going ahead of Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr. and Mike Evans. This feels a little high for him, given how many weapons Miami’s offense has, and I think he will finish as a lower WR2 at his ceiling.
Odell Beckham Jr.
The Dolphins don’t really need a great WR3 if their top two wide receivers can stay healthy. Hill and Waddle did miss a combined three games, but the injuries lingered into others, forcing a small spotlight on the fact that Miami didn’t have someone waiting in the wings to help pick up the slack. Beckham spent last season with the Ravens after missing the entire 2022 season recovering from a torn ACL. He played in 14 games and finished with 565 yards and three touchdowns.
OBJ’s fantasy relevance is likely done, but he could be a contender for best ball leagues. He finished as the overall WR63 last year and is being drafted as the WR84 this season. Beckham could be a late-round flier to fill a bench spot but leave him on waivers for now.
Jonnu Smith
With how much Tagovailoa throws and his high accuracy, it feels wild that the Dolphins can’t have a fantasy-relevant tight end. It could be their offensive scheme just not utilizing the position in that way, but every year, fantasy managers clamored for Mike Gesicki to get more usage. Now, Miami has brought in Jonnu Smith, who spent last year with the Atlanta Falcons as Gesicki begins a new chapter with the Cincinnati Bengals. Smith played in all 17 games a year ago and was infamously the apple of former head coach Arthur Smith’s eye, causing Kyle Pitts not to get the redzone targets he deserved.
Jonnu Smith finished with 582 yards and three touchdowns, ending as the overall TE17 in half-PPR scoring. Fantasy managers don’t have faith in the move as he is being drafted this year as the TE25, so similar to Beckham, target him in best ball and then keep an eye on his early season target share to possibly add him from waivers.
Jason Sanders
Sanders is in a unique situation because the high-octane Miami offense doesn’t give him many field goal attempts. Still, he had the second-most extra-point attempts last year (59), behind only San Francisco’s Jake Moody (61). He finished last season as the K12, barely staying in starting contention. Sanders is being drafted as the K10 this season, so it is worth keeping an eye on in drafts. Even if his field goal attempts stay stagnant, he should still see a high number of extra points to cushion his weekly numbers.
D/ST
The Dolphins defense will have some new faces in prominent positions. Miami brought in Neville Gallimore and Calais Campbell on the defensive line, linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. and veteran safety Jordan Poyer. Christian Wilkins (Las Vegas Raiders), Jerome Baker (Seattle Seahawks) and Andrew Van Ginkel (Minnesota Vikings) are all gone, and it remains to be seen what impact that will have.
Miami’s D/ST finished as the D/ST6 last season but has dropped to the D/ST9 for their ADP this year. They are worth rostering in 10-team leagues or larger, but be cautious for weeks they have bad matchups, like Week 2 against Buffalo. Overall, though, they have a very favorable schedule for the fantasy football regular season, with managers likely wanting a gameplan for Weeks 14-16 as the Dolphins take on the New York Jets, Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers.