I am a noted fantasy tight end hater. Sure, there is plenty of talent out there, but it remains a wasteland for fantasy, as there aren’t 12 players who you really want to roster. Some teams barely have a player you can call the starter at the position. The lack of useful fantasy tight ends does make it easier to narrow the position down to just a handful of players who you know will get plenty of snaps, routes run and targets to at least facilitate a strong statistical season.
If you check out the average draft position below, you’ll see tight end drafters feel safe going from the third to the sixth round with eight players. This is also the first time in a while Travis Kelce isn’t the consensus No. 1 fantasy tight end. Injuries and age appeared to slow him down last season, that is, until he went off in the playoffs.
Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta ended up leading the position, as he blew away the competition with 10 touchdown receptions, while no other tight end topped six. Evan Engram led the position in receptions, as the only tight end to top 100 with 114. While George Kittle led in receiving yards with 1,020 on just 65 receptions.
LaPorta’s TE1 finish wasn’t by much and the rankings change drastically between standard and PPR scoring. Kittle had six games under 29 receiving yards, while Engram had just four touchdowns despite 143 targets. Touchdowns, which are tough to replicate from year-to-year, are what kept LaPorta on top despite only one game where he hit 85 yards.
What I’m trying to tell you is that tight end is not reliable.
Tight End ADP
| Player/Tm/Bye | TE | Overall |
|---|---|---|
| Player/Tm/Bye | TE | Overall |
| Sam LaPorta DET (5) | 1 | 22 |
| Travis Kelce KC (6) | 2 | 35 |
| Trey McBride ARI (11) | 3 | 44 |
| Mark Andrews BAL (14) | 4 | 48 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF (12) | 5 | 53 |
| Kyle Pitts ATL (12) | 6 | 64 |
| Evan Engram JAC (12) | 7 | 72 |
| George Kittle SF (9) | 8 | 74 |
| David Njoku CLE (10) | 9 | 92 |
| Jake Ferguson DAL (7) | 10 | 95 |
| Brock Bowers LV (10) | 11 | 105 |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN (6) | 12 | 111 |
| Dallas Goedert PHI (5) | 13 | 114 |
| Dalton Schultz HOU (14) | 14 | 127 |
| Pat Freiermuth PIT (9) | 15 | 124 |
| Cole Kmet CHI (7) | 16 | 130 |
| Taysom Hill NO (12) | 17 | 143 |
| Luke Musgrave GB (10) | 18 | 151 |
| Hunter Henry NE (14) | 19 | 162 |
| Tyler Conklin NYJ (12) | 20 | 161 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN (5) | 21 | 169 |
| Cade Otton TB (11) | 22 | 172 |
| Jonnu Smith MIA (6) | 23 | 179 |
| Isaiah Likely BAL (14) | 24 | 180 |
| Noah Fant SEA (10) | 25 | 191 |
| Juwan Johnson NO (12) | 26 | 192 |
| Ben Sinnott WAS (14) | 27 | 199 |
| Mike Gesicki CIN (12) | 28 | 206 |
| Michael Mayer LV (10) | 29 | 217 |
| Ja’Tavion Sanders CAR (11) | 30 | 219 |
| Zach Ertz WAS (14) | 31 | 228 |
| Tucker Kraft GB (10) | 32 | 242 |
| Greg Dulcich DEN (14) | 33 | 221 |
| Darren Waller | 34 | 226 |
| Jelani Woods IND (14) | 35 | 248 |
| Hayden Hurst LAC (5) | 36 | 256 |
| Daniel Bellinger NYG (11) | 37 | 236 |
| Colby Parkinson LAR (6) | 38 | 263 |
| Theo Johnson NYG (11) | 39 | 270 |
| Dawson Knox BUF (12) | 40 | 276 |
| Tyler Higbee LAR (6) | 41 | 267 |
| Logan Thomas SF (9) | 42 | 300 |
| Will Dissly LAC (5) | 43 | 306 |
| Gerald Everett CHI (7) | 44 | 286 |
| Donald Parham Jr. LAC (5) | 45 | 279 |
| Lucas Krull DEN (14) | 46 | 322 |
| Erick All Jr. CIN (12) | 47 | 324 |
| Noah Gray KC (6) | 48 | 329 |
I still like Travis Kelce
Kelce hurt himself in practice the week before the season opener last season and then sprained his ankle a month later. The team as a whole had trouble moving the ball, especially with Kelce not at 100%, so touchdown opportunities weren’t what they were in year’s past. The season was suboptimal for the 33-year-old who also was on a whirlwind romance with Taylor Swift. It was a weird season for sure.
The good news is that Kelce went off in the playoffs, catching 32-of-37 passes for 355 yards and three touchdowns. It is fair to question if the team held him back for that playoff run and if that could happen again, but we know for a fact that he can still get the job done.
This season, Kelce will be paired with WR Marquise Brown, a legitimate deep threat which the team had failed to find since letting Tyreek Hill walk. Add in rookie WR Xavier Worthy and second-year receiver Rashee Rice, even with a likely suspension, and you have an offense much better suited to stretch the field. Truly keeping defenders on their toes for the deep ball with Kelce underneath will help lift this offense back up to their usual heights.
Now add in that you can get Kelce in the third round, and I’m completely on board. But, his name recognition could still have him go earlier in your home leagues, and in that case, I’d likely pass.
Dalton Kincaid is the Upside TE of the Year
There is some good news in this season’s early ADP and that is Kincaid going in the fifth round. Sure, it’s still a high pick for the second-year tight end, but if you’re going to take a risk on his obvious upside, it is a good spot. Right now TE Dawson Knox’s presence on the Bills has kept Kincaid’s ADP from rising. When you look at the splits, Knox did keep Kincaid from being a true fantasy stud last season. And with the team bringing Knox back, it makes sense to worry about Kincaid’s snap count.
But, in this case, I’m willing to look past those numbers and bet on Kincaid’s ability and the abundance of targets that opened up with Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs’ departures. Knox also improved as a pass-blocker last season, leading the team in PFF’s pass blocking grade, while Kincaid was subpar in his grading. I expect we see Kincaid used moe often this season off the line, giving him the ability to focus on running routes and catching passes,
I also see this team learning from Kansas City. The Bills don’t want to put too much of their salary cap into one receiver. Their best receiver is likely Kincaid and they have one of the best QBs in the league. Kincaid will be on his rookie contract a few more years and could quickly become the target leader on this team. And it’s much easier to pay a tight end top dollar than a wide receiver.
If I want to wait on tight end, who should I target?
If I don’t get Kelce or Kincaid, I plan on waiting on the position. Waiting will also make me more inclined to draft two tight ends in the hope that one will have a breakout or at least I can stream the two based on defensive matchups.
When this happens I also like to diversify my two tight ends between a boring pick and an exciting pick. In the boring category, Pat Freiermuth and Hunter Henry are two players I like and in the exciting category, Chig Okonkwo and Jelani Woods are two I like. There is a good chance these last two end up on the waiver wire if you are in a shallow league, so don’t force that second tight end if there is a running back you’d rather stash, as they are worth more than a backup tight end at that point in a draft.