Happy Fourth from your neighbor to the north! With it being a holiday in the States, there will be baseball on all day, starting with a game in Washington at 11:05 a.m. ET. That means you’ll have a healthy dose of MLB to accompany your barbeque, beer and fireworks — presented in no particular order.
However, for the purposes of this article, we will be focusing on the five-game main slate that kicks off at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s dive in and go position-by-position.
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PITCHER
Stud
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $9,200 – Giolito was roughed up a little in his most recent outing, but in general, the right-hander was phenomenal in the month of June, registering a 2.32 ERA and a 31.2% strikeout rate. Heck, Giolito has collected 19 strikeouts in his last 13.0 innings alone. I’d expect that trend to continue on Tuesday evening with the Blue Jays in town. Toronto’s bats have been cold as of late, and across specifically the past two weeks, the Jays own the league’s third-highest strikeout rate (27.4%).
Value
Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $6,400 – You’d have to think the strikeouts are coming for Sheehan. The rookie RHP has struck out just 19.0% of the batters he’s faced in his first three starts in the majors, yet Sheehan had 88 strikeouts across only 53.1 innings in Double-A earlier in 2023. That’s elite production at any level. Maybe tonight is the night, as the Pirates have been among baseball’s most underwhelming lineups the past 14 days. Within that span, Pittsburgh sits in the top 10 in strikeout rate (24.6%) and swinging strike rate (12.3%), while also sitting in possession of MLB’s worst wRC+ (74). Yikes.
INFIELD
Stud
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $6,100 – Freddie Freeman is in the midst of a very Freddie Freeman season. The slugger owns a .411 expected wOBA and a 149 wRC+ in his 385 plate appearances, while he’s also quietly closing in on a career-high in stolen bases (11). Basically, he’s perfect and he does it all. Freeman draws a fantastic matchup on Tuesday in the form of Luis Ortiz ($5,100). Not only does Ortiz sport an ugly 6.79 xERA in 2023, but he’s allowed opposing LHBs to compile a massive .467 wOBA.
Stud
Jake Rogers, Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics, $4,300 – Rogers hit fifth the last time the Tigers faced a left-handed opponent, which makes a lot of sense given the backstop’s season-long splits. In 52 plate appearances against southpaws, Rogers sports a stunning .511 ISO and a 193 wRC+. That’s what happens when seven of your 11 hits off lefties leave the park. Speaking of, JP Sears ($5,600) is on the mound for Oakland. Sears is surrendering the third-most home runs per nine of any qualified starter (1.96).
Value
Amed Rosario, Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves, $3,600 – Rosario was atrocious to begin 2023, yet things have started to turn around for the middle infielder. Since June 1, Rosario is hitting .313 with a 108 wRC+. Moreover, Rosario is hitting .385 with just a 3.7% strikeout rate against LHPs in that same span. Considering the 27-year-old has a career 123 wRC+ versus southpaws, I’d say this is the real Rosario. Kolby Allard ($6,800) and his career 5.95 ERA aren’t all that daunting an opponent, either.
Value
Andy Ibanez, Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics, $3,400 – What better way to spend Independence Day than stacking the Tigers, am I right? Joking aside, Detroit’s lineup has easily been at its best when facing LHPs in 2023, and Ibanez is a huge aspect of that pattern. In 48 plate appearances within the split, the utility man owns a .319 ISO and a 126 wRC+. That’s some serious upside at a price tag this affordable.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $5,500 – We’re playing against type with this one. Robert is at his best against left-handed opponents, while Chris Bassitt ($8,500) can lay most of his issues at the feet of opposing LHBs. Still, Robert has simply been one of the best hitters in the world since the beginning of May. In his last 234 plate appearances, the outfielder is slashing .309/.378/.662 with a 181 wRC+. On a small slate like this, Robert is clearly viable.
Stud
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians, $4,200 – Yes. Harris hit a pair of home runs on Monday. However, his transformation back into the man that won NL Rookie of the Year in 2022 began over a month ago. To wit, Harris launched his second long ball of the season on May 26. Since then, the sophomore is slashing .347/.380/.612 with a 164 wRC+. At this point, having a price tag this close to $4K is an absolute steal. Add in the fact that Shane Bieber ($9,600) has struggled with LHBs in 2023, and you’ve got an obvious buying window.
Value
Andrew Benintendi, Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $3,300 – You’re not getting a lot of pop when you invest in Benintendi, yet the veteran does sport a 125 wRC+ since June 1. He’s also left-handed. That’s enough to be viable against the aforementioned Bassitt, who is surrendering a .403 wOBA to opposing LHBs in 2023. In fact, when these two squared off earlier in the season, Benintendi was 2-for-2 with a walk. Not too shabby.
Value
Jason Heyward, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $3,000 – Feel free to use any left-handed Dodgers outfielder of your choosing, but Heyward happens to be the cheapest of the bunch. He’s also been everything you could want in a reclamation project, with a .233 ISO and a 135 wRC+ against RHPs so far in 2023. Los Angeles always has the magic touch.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
