Welcome to a real Thursday Night Football game. The Chiefs? The Eagles? The Lions? Those were merely appetizers for the main course of mediocrity that is the Chicago Bears travelling east to take on the Washington Commanders on short rest. I’m honestly not sure if one person on the planet is excited for this matchup — and that includes all the players.
Yet, we persevere. It’s still the NFL, so let’s dive into this underwhelming Showdown slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CHI vs WAS)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
D.J. Moore ($15,000) – With how poorly Justin Fields ($11,000) and Chicago’s offense was functioning over the first three weeks of the season, it’s hard to believe that Moore already has two 100-yard receiving performances. Still, when you’re far and away your team’s No. 1 option at wideout, these kind of things can happen. Moore comes into Week 5 leading all Bears skill position players in targets (24), receptions (19) and receiving yards (301). In fact, no other Chicago wide receiver has even registered double-digit catches through four games. Moore also sits fifth among qualified WRs in yards per target (12.5) and 17th in air yards (372), which is probably why he’s top 10 among wideouts in DKFP earned per touch (3.53). Basically, he’s been amazing despite his surroundings. I’d look for that trend to continue on Thursday, especially with Commanders D/ST ($5,400) allowing opponents to average 8.0 yards per pass attempt the past three weeks — the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.
Sam Howell ($14,100 CP) – It hasn’t been all that noteworthy a start to Howell’s sophomore campaign. Despite some dual-threat ability, Howell has produced just 0.36 DKFP per drop back through four starts — a figure that is far too close to Daniel Jones’ mark of 0.35 DKFP for anyone to feel overly positive. However, this spot is more about matchup than anything else. Bears D/ST ($4,000) has been putrid all season long, especially when it comes to defending the pass. Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson all threw for three touchdowns versus Chicago, while Baker Mayfield activated the 300-yard passing bonus in Week 2 by racking up 317 yards in a victory. No NFC team is currently surrendering more opponent passing touchdowns per game (2.5) or opponent yards per passing attempt (8.4). On top of all that, the Bears secondary remains devastated by injury, with Eddie Jackson (foot) and Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) sidelined. If Howell can’t put up some gaudy numbers tonight, it might be time for Washington to look elsewhere at QB.
FLEX Plays
Commanders D/ST ($5,400) – This has the feel of a slate where a majority of people are going to use at least one defense in a lineup. Maybe even both. So which one is the better play? I’d have to side with Washington. It’s not even that the Commanders do anything overly well on that side of the ball — they did collect seven sacks in Week 2 against Denver — it’s more that Chicago’s defense might just not be any good. While Washington enters Week 5 sitting 18th in the NFL in defensive DVOA, the Bears are 31st. Though the Commanders own a modest 22.2% quarterback pressure rate, Chicago possesses the NFC’s lowest mark at only 14.4%. The eye test and the stats paint a pretty bleak picture. Plus, Fields led the league in both fumbles (16) and sacks taken (55) last season. The man is a turnover machine. He’s a lightning rod for defensive fantasy points.
Equanimeous St. Brown ($1,800) – Using multiple Bears receivers on the same slate? I know. It’s a little insane. However, St. Brown is simply too cheap on Thursday evening. With Chase Claypool (personal) away from the team, St. Brown essentially inherited his teammate’s role in Week 4, logging a 58.3% snap share against the Eagles after having not seen the field in Chicago’s first three games of the season. In Philadelphia, it was Darnell Mooney ($5,000) who ended up benefitting in terms of target share — St. Brown converted his lone opportunity into a 21-yard reception — but at this price, just being on the field that often warrants consideration. Again, it’s a great matchup. The Commanders have conceded the seventh-most DKFP per game to opposing WRs.
Fades
Jahan Dotson ($7,000) – Dotson has been the Commanders’ most targeted red zone option through the first four games of the season. That, by itself, will always keep a wideout on the fantasy radar. However, aside from those high-leverage opportunities, Dotson’s impact has been quite minuscule. Despite 18 targets going back to the beginning of Week 2, Dotson has been held below 30 receiving yards in each of Washington’s past three contests. More over, among the 77 WRs who have logged at least 50% of their team’s snaps, Dotson’s average of 4.8 yards per target ranks sixth-lowest. On a slate with several viable high-priced assets, I can’t see myself paying up for Dotson. It doesn’t help that Curtis Samuel ($5,600) is far more cost-effective, as well.
THE OUTCOME
Though I am a little shocked to ever see the Commanders as nearly a touchdown favorite, the spread speaks more to the ineptitude of the Bears. Chicago enters Week 5 winless, turnover-prone and susceptible on the backend due to key injuries in its secondary. That’s simply not a good way to live. I’ll ride with the home team.
Final Score: Washington 27, Chicago 20
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CHI vs WAS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
