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Bubble Watch, Feb. 29: Who’s in, who’s out of NCAA Tournament for March Madness Bracketology

Bubble Watch, Feb. 29: Who’s in, who’s out of NCAA Tournament for March Madness Bracketology

Updated:

By: Collin Sherwin

Will anyone from the Big East please win some games? While the Mountain West teams dramatically keep passing quality wins back and forth, the top tier of Dave Gavitt’s league keeps beating up on their proletariat.

UConn, Marquette, and Creighton could stop showing up to the gym until March 20 and they’d be in the Big Dance. But every time a conference mate comes in search of some mercy and eventual tournament units, they get absolutely nowhere.

For reference where teams currently stand in the eyes of bracketology experts, we’ll use the latest brackets of Dominic Lese of Bracketometry.com and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.

Home team in italics

Creighton 91, Seton Hall 68

It would have been a tall task to ask any 11.5-point underdog to get the Quad 1 win that solidifies their case. SHU’s 5-6 against Quad 1 now which is fine, but it’s the 3-2 mark vs. Quad 2 and 2-2 vs. Quad 3 that are the issue.

But letting the Bluejays shoot 31-57 from the field while getting outrebounded by eight is an issue. So is going down 38-18 before halftime.

Lunardi had the Pirates as the first team in the Last Four In entering the game, which means the First Four in Dayton. They did nothing to improve that slot last night, and the hope is they’re still invited to Ohio after this performance.

Marquette 91, Providence 69

Oh another Big East bubble team doing nothing to improve their case on the road? This league seems determined to give itself as few bids as possible.

Nine minutes in it was 27-4 the home team, and the rest was just paperwork. The Golden Eagles going 14-26 from three-point range. PC continues to play hard, but at 5-7 in Quad 1 and 3-3 in Quad 2 might not be enough. There will be chances hosting Villanova and UConn still, but the last one might be real tough. And one of those two might be absolutely necessary to get in without winning it all at MSG.

St. John’s 82, Butler 59

Maybe Rick Pitino was playing the perfect mind games, because with incredible lateral quickness the Johnnies are back in the picture. Another Quad 1 win gets St. John’s to 3-9 in the toughest games, and 6-2 vs. Quad 2 with only one bad loss to Georgetown.

That’s three straight wins since the head coach said his team “can’t guard anybody.” Assuming they don’t slip up against 3-25 DePaul or that same Georgetown again, they’ll finish the regular season 19-12, 11-9 in the Big East. So it might take a win or two on their home court of Madison Square Garden to get an at-large bid.

South Carolina 70, Texas A&M 68

You don’t lose a lot of games at home when you only have four turnovers, but Buzz Williams’ Aggies continue to be terrible at the whole “shooting” thing. There are 362 D1 teams, and only two are worse from three-point range than A&M’s 26.7%. They went 2-17 from there last night, and it’s tough to win basketball games without any contribution from the perimeter whatsoever.

That’s five in a row dropped for the Aggies (15-13, 6-9 SEC), and they might be cooked without winning their last three games (at Georgia, vs. Mississippi State, at Mississippi) or a miracle run in Nashville in the SEC Tournament. A precipitous fall from grace this February for a team that seemed a lock just three weeks ago.

Virginia 72, Boston College 68

Well at least one bubble team got it done on the road! UVA (21-8, 12-6 ACC) survives one they had to have, and they move to 3-4 in Quad 1 and 4-4 in Quad 2. The Hoos are perfect in Quad 3 and below, but it’s hardly a safe case. This was more a matter of surviving the chopping block than advancing their case, but a win at Duke on Saturday would make all this academic.