The No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs will take on the No. 9 Michigan State Spartans in the First Round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Below we’ll preview both teams, including analysis and key stats while also providing our prediction.
Mississippi State
NET: 31
KenPom Overall: 30
KenPom O: 59
KenPom D: 20
Record: 21-13
Strength of Schedule: 23
Conference: SEC
Conference Record: 8-10
Quad 1 Record: 4-9
The Mississippi State Bulldogs fought their way through the bubble with an impressive performance in the SEC Tournament, and are going dancing for the second year in a row. They entered the SEC Tournament as the No. 9 seed in the conference, having lost four straight to end the regular season, but they grabbed wins over LSU and top-seeded Tennessee to qualify for an at-large bid. Opposing teams shot 41.4% from the field against the Bulldogs this season, the 41st-lowest mark in the nation.
Michigan State
NET: 24
KenPom Overall: 19
KenPom O: 57
KenPom D: 8
Record: 19-14
Strength of Schedule: 12
Conference: Big Ten
Conference Record: 10-10
Quad 1 Record: 3-9
Michigan State was streaky throughout the year resulting in their bubble status. They ended the regular season on bad note, dropping three of their final four games. A loss in the first round of the conference tournament likely would have ended their hopes of going dancing, but they were able to pick up the 10-point win over Minnesota. The Spartans have shown they can hang with the top teams in the league thanks to guards Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard, who averaged 29.2 points and 8.1 assists per game.
Mississippi State/Michigan State Pick
This game should be a good duel between two talented guards. Both Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard and Michigan State’s Tyson Walker are used to having to do a little bit of everything to help their team win. For the Bulldogs, though, they have forward Tolu Smith to help Hubbard, but overall lack the depth that the Spartans have. Malik Hall, A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins are all solid players that can step up if Walker gets shut down. Plus, Michigan State’s overall defensive metrics are better, meaning Mississippi State would have to play above-average offense to pull off a win.
Pick: Michigan State
2024 March Madness: No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 8 Mississippi State odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Michigan State -2, Mississippi State +2
Over/Under: 127.5
Moneyline: Michigan State -142, Mississippi State +120