We have six games tonight. Kristaps Porzingis and Alperen Sengun are out. Kawhi Leonard ($8,400), James Harden ($8,700) and Jaylen Brown ($7,900) are questionable. Luka Doncic ($12,700) injured his hamstring at the end of last night’s game, and he’s been ruled out for tonight. Coby White ($7,600) also injured his hip at the end of last night’s game, so he is unlikely to play, as well. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
As for back-to-backs, CHI, DAL and POR played last night. LAC and PHO play tomorrow.
DraftKings Sportsbook has no game with a total of at least 240. There is one game with a total below 210 – NYK/POR (205.5). There are two double-digit favorites – OKC -11 over DAL and NYK -10.5 over POR. There is no game within two points. There are two home dogs – CHI and POR. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Jalen Green, Houston Rockets vs. Washington Wizards ($7,700) – In the first game without Alperen Sengun, I recommended Green over VanVleet two nights ago because Green saw the biggest usage bump with Sengun off the court and the projected ownership was much lower. Well, let’s just say that I’m not a smart man. VanVleet went for 48.75 DKFP while Green went for 31.75. I did acknowledge that the range of outcomes was much wider for Green, and now we all know the Jalen Green Experience. But like Forrest Gump, I will not let that deter me and am going right back to Green again. I truly am not a smart man. Green has 60-DKFP upside and his salary decreased by $100 from the last game while VanVleet’s has increased by $500. In addition, the projected ownership spread remains. The matchup doesn’t get much better as the Wizards have played at the sixth-fastest pace over the last 10 games while being 24th in defensive rating. Against shooting guards, they have boosted the FPPM by 7.99%, the fourth-most generous mark.
Other Options – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400), Kyrie Irving ($8,400), Fred VanVleet ($8,300), Josh Hart ($7,300), Derrick White ($7,000), Bradley Beal ($6,700)
Value
Dante Exum, Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder ($3,600) – With Doncic injuring his hamstring at the end of last night’s game, he will not be playing tonight. Doncic has missed seven games this season and my initial thought was to go with THJ, who went for 51, 30.5, 51.5 and 32 DKFP in a four-game stretch in which he and Kyrie both played with Doncic out. But Exum did not play in those games and has been out for most of the games Doncic has missed. There was a 12-game stretch in December when Exum played very well, going for over 20 DKFP in all but one game with five over 30 and two over 40 DKFP. Since returning to action after missing most of January and February, Exum has been playing around 18 minutes a game and received 25 last night, while THJ has seen his role significantly reduced from earlier in the season. Exum averages 0.91 DKFP per minute and I think he plays over 30 minutes in this one.
Other Options – Ayo Dosunmu ($5,900), Josh Giddey ($5,700), Alex Caruso ($5,500), Bilal Coulibaly ($4,500), Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,000), Onuralp Bitum ($3,800)
Forward
Stud
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Clippers ($8,200) – With the Bulls playing the second leg of a back-to-back, I wasn’t ecstatic about DeRozan tonight. Looking back at the game logs, he was much worse on the second leg of back-to-backs. But, but, but…In the last two back-to-back situations, he’s been much better in the second leg. Small sample sizes, I know. And he went for 67.25 DKFP last night, so it’s highly unlikely he does better than that. But, but, but…Coby White ($7,600) injured his hip at the end of the game last night and Kawhi Leonard ($8,400) is probably not playing, so DeRozan should see an increased usage rate while the defensive matchup could be less daunting, although Paul George is no slouch in that area, but he’s no Kawhi.
Other Options – Jayson Tatum ($9,800), Paul George ($8,300), Kyle Kuzma ($8,200)
Value
Amir Coffey, Los Angeles Clippers at Chicago Bulls ($3,800) – Coffey only averages 0.61 DFKP per minute on the season and he went for 15.5, 5.5 and 6.5 DKFP in three starts filling in for Kawhi. In the three most recent starts filling in for Kawhi, though, Coffey put up 22, 22 and 39.5 DKFP. I highly doubt Kawhi plays in this one and Coffey has been a significant part of the rotation as is, so getting close to 30 minutes should be in the offering.
Other Options – Corey Kispert ($5,400), Amen Thompson ($5,300), Norman Powell ($5,200), Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,000), Torrey Craig ($3,700), Jae’Sean Tate ($3,300)
Center
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers ($11,400) – With Doncic unlikely to play, Giannis will likely put up the most raw points on the slate. The production has been all over the map lately, primarily due to blowouts, but he’s put up 76.5 and 81 DKFP in two of the last five games. Against the 76ers eight games ago, Giannis went for 59.5 DKFP. Without Embiid, Paul Reed ($5,400) and Mo Bamba ($4,400) shouldn’t provide too much resistance, so Giannis should feast once again.
Other Options – Jabari Smith ($6,600), Al Horford ($6,300)
Value
Jock Landale, Houston Rockets vs. Washington Wizards ($4,600) – With no Sengun, the Rockets started Jabari Smith at center, but Landale played 26 minutes off the bench. Landale went for 11 points, four rebounds, five assists, two steals and one block. I’m expecting a similar workload. The matchup is a good one, as Washington plays fast and eschews defense. Over the last 10 games, they have boosted the FPPM to centers by 8.25 percent.
Other Options – Paul Reed ($5,400), Daniel Gafford ($4,900)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
