We have seven games tonight. Victor Wembanyama, Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker and Scottie Barnes are out. Jaylen Brown ($7,300) is questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
As for back-to-backs, CHI, GSW and SAC played last night. MIA and MIN play tomorrow.
DraftKings Sportsbook has zero games with a total of at least 240. There are two double-digit favorites — PHO -10 over TOR and SAC -11 over SAS There are two games within two points — IND -1.5 over MIN and DEN -0.5 over BOS. There is one home dog – DET. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat ($12,200) – Doncic is the most expensive player on the slate, and there are a bunch of guys I like in the $8K range, so it comes down to roster construction. But if I’m paying up on this slate, I will spread my arms out wide, tilt my head back, and then sing at the top of my lungs…HALLELUKA!!!
Despite being pricey, Doncic has exceeded point expectations 70% of the time this season. He often plays around 40 minutes and is a threat to mess around every night. The usage rate is in the atmospheric range of 36 to 38 percent. He has messed around in each of the last four games and scored at least 30 points in seven straight. Doncic has gone for at least 70 DKFP in each of the last five games with a high of 87.25. Over the last 17 games, he’s gone for over 70 DKFP 12 times with a high of 101.5.
Other Options – Anthony Edwards ($8,800), De’Aaron Fox ($8,500), Immanuel Quickley ($8,400), Cade Cunningham ($7,600), Devin Vassell ($7,300), Bradley Beal ($6,900), Terry Rozier ($6,600), Malik Monk ($6,300), Dennis Schroder ($6,100), Grayson Allen ($6,000)
Value
Ben Sheppard, Indiana Pacers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($3,200) – Sheppard was selected with the 26th overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. In four seasons at Belmont, he converted 37% of his attempts from beyond the arc. During his senior season, he was at 41%. In 38 games with the Pacers, he’s drilling 36% from downtown. The playing time was predictably sporadic early on, but since mid-January, Sheppard has been a part of the rotation, albeit playing in the teens. Over his last two games played, though, he’s received 27 and 22 minutes, shooting 7-of-13 from downtown. Playing alongside Haliburton and McConnell provides plenty of good looks.
Other Options – Duncan Robinson ($5,800), Tre Jones ($5,300), Mike Conley ($5,200)
Forward
Stud
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers ($8,800) – Edwards is THE alpha of the pack in Minnesota, often garnering a usage rate in the low-to-mid 30 percent range. It has exceeded 40 percent a few times. While he racks up some steals, that is such a variable category that it’s tough to rely on nightly. The rebounding and assist numbers aren’t robust either, but he flashes from time to time. Edwards is highly dependent on scoring. All of this makes the range of outcomes wider than for most superstars, but when it all comes together, it’s a beautiful sight and something that isn’t too far out of the realm of possibility.
Towns is out and could be done for the season. With Towns off the court this season, Edwards has seen a 3.48 percent usage bump. Towns missed two games this season. In those contests, Edwards went for 59.75 and 57.75 DKFP. Owooooooooooooooooooooooo.
Other Options – Kevin Durant ($9,700), Jayson Tatum ($9,500), Jimmy Butler ($8,300), Kelly Olynyk ($6,800), Malik Monk ($6,300), Grayson Allen ($6,000)
Value
Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings ($4,900) – Johnson was a starter earlier in the season, playing over 30 minutes a night. Then he was transitioned to being the microwave scorer off the bench. The playing time was all over the map, playing as low as 19 minutes to as much as 34. Over the last four games, he’s received 34, 31, 28 and 34 minutes, contributing 29.5, 26, 19 and 36.5 DKFP. The usage rate has been around 20 percent. Victor Wembanyama has already been ruled out. With Wembanyama off the court this season, Johnson has seen a 2.87 percent usage bump.
Other Options – Duncan Robinson ($5,800), PJ Washington ($5,500), Naz Reid ($5,400), Jeremy Sochan ($5,100), Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,000), Caleb Martin ($4,500), Simone Fontecchio ($4,300), Kyle Anderson ($4,300)
Center
Stud
Jusuf Nurkic, Phoenix Suns vs. Toronto Raptors ($7,200) – Over the last five games, Nurkic has grabbed 12, 31, 10, 13 and 22 rebounds. He contributes defensive stats and is an excellent passer, dishing out a total of 24 assists over that span. He’s no stranger to scoring either, putting up double-digit points in three of those contests. The playing time can fluctuate, though, and he’s been known to put up stinkers from time to time, but the matchup should be a good one, as the Raptors are decimated in the front court. He should have his way with Olynyk or whoever Toronto uses to match up with him. Nurkic has gone for at least 30 DKFP in seven of the last eight games with four above 40 and a 59.75 and 60 DKFP game in there as well.
Other Options – Nikola Jokic ($11,400), Domantas Sabonis ($10,600), Kelly Olynyk ($6,800)
Value
Zach Collins, San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings ($4,300) – Wembanyama is out so Collins will likely start. In the six games Wembanyama has missed, Collins played in five and put up 27.8, 41, 34.3, 25.3 and 27.5 DKFP. He’s going to be extremely popular, and for good reason because he averages 1.04 DKFP per minute and will likely play around 28 minutes. It comes down to roster construction and whether you want to eat the chalk or not.
Other Options – PJ Washington ($5,500), Naz Reid ($5,400)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
