Pat Mayo and Geoff Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks and recapping the 2023 Travelers Championship.
2022 RMC — Picks & Preview | Info & Research | Stats/Tools
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2022 RMC — DraftKings Strategy | DraftKings Picks | Own Projections
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Field
156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, June 29
Defending Champion: Tony Finau
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Key Stats
Opportunities Gained
Eagles Gained
Par 4s Gained 350-400 Yards
Putting 5-15 Feet
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Course
Course: Detroit Golf Club
Yardage: 7,370
Par: 72
Greens: Bentgrass (with Poa)
Par 3s (4): Average distance – 192 yards
- The two longest Par 3s come within a three-hole stretch, both are among the four toughest holes on the course and carry a bogey-or-worse rate of at least 17%.
Par 4s (10): Average distance – 429 yards
- Variety is the spice of Par 4s … this course has five checking in under 400 yards and four others that measure over 450.
Par 5s (4): Average distance – 580 yards
- These are the four easiest holes on the course and the mammoth No. 4 (635 yards) is the only one that provides any resistance (the other three all carry an eagle rate of at least 1.9%)
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Past Winners
- 2022: Tony Finau -26
- 2021: Cam Davis -18
- 2020: Bryson DeChambeau -23
- 2019: Nate Lashley -25
2022: Tony Finau (-26, five clear of Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith and Cameron Young)
- Finau was tied for the lead after Thursday (64), the start of a consistent week that saw him card four round of 67 or better
- Three of the top-four in SG: Off-the-Tee for the week cashed top-10 paychecks (shoutout to Chris Gotterup for managing to lead the field in this category and somehow finish in 40th)
2021: Cameron Davis (-18, playoff win over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann)
- Davis shot 67-68 in all four rounds, consistency that allowed him to overcome being five back after Thursday
- Each of the top-11 finishers gained strokes both in approach and putting (five of them gained at least two strokes in both categories)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23, three clear of Matthew Wolff)
- He picked up six strokes on Sunday over Wolff by posting his best round of the tournament (65). He carded a 67 or better in all four days.
- Five of the top-7 putters for the week cashed top-10 paychecks, including a tournament best +7.8 strokes putting by DeChambeau
2019: Nate Lashley (-25, six clear of Doc Redman)
- Lashley was a shot clear of the field after Thursday courtesy of a 63 and he replicated that round on moving day to remove all doubt.
- 11 of the top-12 finishers gained strokes putting on the field from 5-10 and 10-15 feet (Lashley was +9.2 strokes cumulative from those two categories)
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Notes
Now that the Pete Dye portion of the schedule has been completed, we move on to the Donald Ross phase. With Detroit moving a month ahead on the schedule this year, the Ross course won’t be played in rapid succession like other years. Ross courses include:
- Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage)
- Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship)
- East Lake GC (TOUR Championship)
The Rocket Mortgage Classic is an amalgamation of both courses at Detroit Golf Club. There has been some re-routing for the tournament, including using a hole from the South Course. The South’s first hole will function as the tournament’s third hole and will be played from the North Course’s first hole tee box. Meanwhile, the regular eighth and ninth holes will be No. 1 and No. 2 for the tournament.
One of the most generous courses on TOUR off the tee, the field has hit over 50% of its drives over 300 yards at Detroit Golf Club while finding the short grass at a 65% clip. Unsurprisingly, this is where Bryson tested out the strategy that resulted in him hoisting the cleverly named U.S. Open Trophy later in 2020. Bryson became the first PGA TOUR winner to lead the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+6.7) and Strokes Gained: Putting (+7.8) during the ShotLink era. And yes, Bryson also led the field in Driving Distance (351 yards)
It was unclear at the time whether or not this strategy would hold up or if it was just a Bryson thing. But in the two years since, driving has proven to play a major role in success at the top. That, and putting.
Despite its 7,370 yards in total, Detroit Golf Club is actually much shorter. I talk every year about Riviera having hidden distance because of elevation and a lot of yardage saved on one Par 4 and the Par 5s, but DGC is kind of the opposite. There are four Par 4s measuring between 450 and 500 yards, but since the average driving distance is around 300 yards, those holes don’t actually play that long. Add on three of the four Par 5s which can’t protect themselves from eagles, and you have an average approach distribution that resembles the Travelers from last week, a course that came in just over 6,800 yards. The majority of approaches will be coming from 175 yards and in — that’s scoring time. Hence why the winning score has been well into the -20s three of the four years of this event’s existence.
Easier courses can allow more of the field to challenge for a win. There’s a reason the U.S. Open leaderboard is a who’s who of elite names while the Byron Nelson is an event where no one can run down KH Lee. So, using Fantasy National Golf Club, and sorting by “Easy Relative to Par” over the past 24 rounds, you’ll find …
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: DRAFTKINGS NOTES
STREAK
There are going to be plenty of birdie streaks this week, but not many of them are going to bridge either nine. Holes 9 and 11 are the tough Par 3s I mentioned above (both carrying a birdie-or-better rate under 12.5%), so that single-handedly makes going front-to-back a tough sell. Those starting on No. 10 have a slightly better chance as four of the six easiest holes (1, 3, 4 and 18) come in a five hole stretch, but with No. 18 being the second toughest hole on location (12.7% birdie-or-better rate), it’s not as if there is a massive edge. Understanding that, it is still wise to go back-to-front if you have to break a tie.
LINEUP HISTORY
2022: Was this the best result of the season for those who go stars and scrubs? It’s possible … of the top-seven on the final DK leaderboard, three cost over $10,000 and the other four cost you no more than $7,500 (three priced under $7,000)
2021: Three of the four players priced over $10,000 failed to make the cut and the one expensive guy who made it through? Patrick Reed finished 32nd on the overall leaderboard and was worse than that in terms of DK points.
2020: DeChambeau cashed in as the most expensive golfer in the field ($11,700) and headed a stars/scrubs week. Of the nine players who scored 100 DK points for the week, two cost over $10,500 and five were sub-$7,000.
2019: Four of the seven highest priced golfers failed to play the weekend and the most expensive option to make the cut didn’t pay it off (Rickie Fowler finished T-46).
- Of the top-14 DK scores for the week, only four were priced at $7,500 or higher.
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Picks
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Rickie Fowler
The win has been brewing since the beginning of the season, and Rickie has finally decided to player against weaker competition. This iteration of the RMC is actually stronger than previous years, but Fowler has only played in two non-Majors or elevated events since January, both top-10 finishes. This is lining up a lot like when Jason Day notched his long overdue win at Bryon Nelson two months ago.
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Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Podcast of the Year and was a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time.
Mayo has been recognized across multiple sports (Football, Baseball & Golf), mediums (Video, Writing & Podcasting), genre (Humor), and game formats (Sports Betting, Daily Fantasy, and Traditional Season Long Fantasy).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ThePME) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.