Like the Terminator or Dominic Toretto for the 10th time, NBA DFS is back, baby!!! Can’t wait to hear the bounce of the ball, the squeak of the shoes, the whistles….”Let them play! Let them play!” What I’m not looking forward to, though, is the suspense of watching the clock tick down to zero as if I’m in an episode of 24, making sure there are no late scratches to make lineups go BOOM! Thank goodness there are only two games on this opening night slate. That said, Bradley Beal ($6,900) and Devin Booker ($8,300) are already questionable, with Beal unlikely to play and Booker at 50/50. Good times.
DraftKings Sportsbook has DEN favored by 5.5 points over the LAL at home with the total at 228. GSW are 3.5 home favorites over PHO with that total at 233.
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Guard
Studs
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns ($9,200) – Curry is the chef in the kitchen for the Warriors, and his specialty dish is spicy treys. He will likely garner a usage rate close to 30% and he averages 1.42 FP/Min, the highest number at the guard position. The Warriors led the league in offensive pace last season and should remain among the league leaders this season. While Curry will likely end up in the 40 to 50 DKFP range, the floor is relatively high due to the high usage and ability to contribute across the board. When it’s all clicking, though, the ceiling is tough to match up to, especially on a small slate such as this. Last season, he went for over 60 DKFP 12 times, with half of those over 70. Curry is the highest-priced guard, and current projected ownership numbers have him relatively low. Things that make you go hmmmm.
Other Options – Devin Booker ($8,300), Chris Paul ($5,600)
Value
Jordan Goodwin, Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors ($3,300) – For value, I think most will utilize Eric Gordon ($4,300) because he will likely get the start for Beal. I always have a hard time clicking on him, though, because he is scoring-dependent and it’s not like he’s going to garner all the usage. The Suns still have Booker (if he plays) and Durant. There is also Grayson Allen ($4,900), who could siphon off minutes from him.
Alright, enough about Gordon. This is about Goodwin. I think he’s going to play and get minutes. How many? That is the million-dollar question. At a minimum, he should soak up all the minutes backing up Booker at point guard. So say Booker plays 34 minutes then Goodwin should be in line for 14 minutes. But there is a chance for more. What if Booker gets hurt? What if he only plays 30? What if Goodwin and Booker share the backcourt together? The reason why I think this is a possibility is because Goodwin is a dawg on defense. He also has some offensive chops. While the shot from downtown isn’t the silkiest, he can tickle the twine but also attack the rim strong, either off the dribble or attacking closeouts. Goodwin can score fantasy goodies in a variety of ways, is cheaper and the ownership percentage should be minimal.
Can this blow up in my face and produce nothing? Absolutely, but at least the price mitigates the risk and offers tremendous profit potential.
Other Options – Christian Braun ($4,400), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,800)
Forward
Studs
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets ($9,300) – I was going to write up Durant here, and it’s the easy choice because Beal is out and Booker could not play as well. But then I saw the projected ownership numbers and had to pivot. Currently, LeBron is at sub-20% while Durant is over 40%. These numbers could obviously change, but if that dynamic remains, then I will go with LeBron despite the higher price.
Durant is great but he’s more about consistency and high floor. He went over 60 DKFP nine times last season. LeBron accomplished the feat 17 times. Say both Booker and Beal are out, then Durant will soak up a ton of usage but the efficiency could come down and the Warriors can key on him easier. He’s going to put up points because he’s freaking Kevin Durant, but what if he comes in at 50 DKFP while LeBron goes for 65 or higher? On a small slate, raw points matter, and if they come with a huge ownership spread, even better!
Other Options – Kevin Durant ($8,400), Austin Reaves ($6,100), Andrew Wiggins ($5,500)
Value
Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns ($4,600) – Kuminga may not start, but he should see plenty of action in this one with Draymond Green unable to go. An explosive athlete, Kuminga’s playing time and development have been on a slow, upward trajectory. He has played in 137 games over two seasons, though, and the progress shown over the summer portends some exciting things to come. A third-year breakout could be in the offering, and he should get over 20 minutes of run in this one.
Other Options – Taurean Prince ($3,500)
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers ($10,000) – Jokic makes a mockery of fantasy hoops and is head and shoulders above the field. While the gap has shrunk, he still possesses the highest floor/ceiling combo in the game due to his ability to contribute at elite levels in multiple categories. There is some merit to fading him, especially on this slate, because of ring ceremony night, his level of fitness after celebrating last season’s chip and Anthony Davis ($8,900) being cheaper with the ability to produce a similar output.
Other Options – Anthony Davis ($8,900)
Value
Dario Saric, Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns ($3,400) – Saric won’t start and could get fewer than 20 minutes of run. That said, there is a small chance he gets to 20 or even a few minutes more than that because of his ability to space the floor. Saric is a career 36% shooter from downtown over his career. In five preseason games, he averaged 19 minutes per contest, drained at least one three and racked up at least one steal in every game. He scored 17 and 14 points in the final two contests. With Nurkic and Eubanks clogging up the paint, Saric could be utilized to bring them out onto the perimeter.
Other Options – Drew Eubanks ($4,700)
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $1M Opening Tip Off [$200K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
