As we approach the final few weeks of the 2023-24 college basketball regular season, the NCAA Tournament bracket looms large for every team. While some, like UConn and Purdue, have effectively locked in a spot come March, others are right on the bubble. When every game matters, the pressure is on. We take a look at how Saturday’s games affected bubble teams’ chances to go dancing next month.
For reference where teams currently stand in the eyes of bracketology experts, we’ll use the latest brackets of Dominic Lese of Bracketometry.com and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.
Home team in italics
Wake Forest 83, Duke 79
Wake Forest took down No. 8 Duke at home on Saturday and is now on the right side of the bubble as one of the last team’s in according to the bracket experts. Metrics like NET and KenPom have the Demon Deacons as a top 30 team, but their lack of signature victories prior to Saturday made for a flimsy resume. Now that they’ve taken down Duke, a strong finish to the regular season and a win or two in the ACC Tournament should be enough to get them into the big dance.
As for Duke, the biggest story of the game came afterwards when Kyle Filipowski was injured during the court storm. We’ll see if that injury is significant as the Blue Devils try to track down rival North Carolina for the ACC regular season title.
North Carolina 54, Virginia 44
Speaking of UNC, it maintained its spot at the top of the ACC standings by winning an ugly road contest at Virginia. This did not help UVA’s cause as it is barely clinging onto an NCAA Tournament spot per the bracketologists.
The Cavaliers entered Saturday ranked 47th in NET and is now a combined 6-7 against Quad 1/2 opponents. That is the epitome of a team right on the bubble and they have to take down Duke in Durham next Saturday if they want to give themselves some leeway before the conference tourney.
Air Force 78, New Mexico 77
New Mexico, oh boy, that was not great. The Lobos followed up a big win over Colorado State earlier in the week by clanking one at home against Air Force, who was in last place in the Mountain West Conference prior to Saturday. This was a hideous Quad 4 loss for them as the Falcons are ranked in the 200’s in both NET and KenPom.
Losses like that are what boots teams into bubble territory and they are now being considered as one of the last teams in the dance. New Mexico still have the metrics and strength of schedule on its side, but it now has to walk a tightrope to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive.
Seton Hall 76, Butler 54
Both of these Big East foes were on the bubble entering Saturday’s matchup and it was Seton Hall who came out victorious. The bracket experts tabbed the Pirates as one of the last teams in and a Quad 2 win on home pulls them in a positive direction. Tough games against Creighton, UConn, and Villanova are coming up, so taking at least one of those games would help their cause before the Big East Tournament.
Butler was on the outside looking in heading into Saturday and has now missed its last opportunity at a Quad 1 win in the regular season. The Bulldogs will most likely have to win the Big East Tournament outright to make the big dance.
Cal 69, Oregon 64
Oregon fell short at Cal on Saturday and that did not help its fading NCAA Tournament case at all. The Ducks are now a combined 6-8 against Quad 1/2 opponents, which is underwhelming given how weak the Pac-12 has been this year.
The good news for them is that games against Arizona, Colorado, and Utah can strengthen their case for an at-large bid IF they go on a tear and win them all. If not, then a Pac-12 Tournament title will be their only path to March Madness.
Tennessee 86, Texas A&M 51
Texas A&M got smacked around by Tennessee in Knoxville on Saturday and to put it bluntly, its hopes for an at-large bid are dead. The Aggies have now dropped four straight games to fall to 15-12 on the year and a sub-.500 record in a good, but not great SEC doesn’t help. The only thing keeping the Aggies near the NCAA Tournament conversation at this point are their six Quad 1 wins.
South Carolina, Georgia, and both Mississippi schools are what’s left on A&M’s schedule as that most likely won’t be enough to move the needle. Buzz Williams’ crew will have to go on a tear in Nashville for the SEC Tournament to get in.
South Carolina 72, Ole Miss 57
South Carolina was able to pick up an impressive double-digit victory in Oxford against Ole Miss on Saturday. That constituted as a Quad 1 win for the Gamecocks and with that, they avoided falling into bubble territory and remain safely in the field of 68.
It’s a different story for the Rebels, who have now been pulled out of the field with the loss. 4-7 against Quad 1/2 foes isn’t going to cut it and unless they upset Alabama at home this Wednesday, the SEC tourney will be their only path to the NCAA tourney.