There are six games on tonight’s slate. Khris Middleton, Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are out. Anfernee Simons (8,200) is probable. Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800), Anthony Davis ($10,100) and LeBron James ($9,600) are questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent updates at DK Live.
As for back-to-backs, MIL and MIN played last night. BOS, BKN, DET, LAL, MIA, ORL, PHO and SAC play on Wednesday.
DraftKings Sportsbook has two games with a total of at least 240 – SAC/PHO (245) and DET/LAL (242). There is one double-digit favorite – LAL -10.5 over DET. There are zero games within two points. There are three home dogs -BKN, ORL and POR. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks ($6,900) – The Heat could be without a ton of offensive weapons on Tuesday. Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson have already been ruled out while Duncan Robinson is questionable. On the season, Herro garners a 26% usage rate, but that will likely get up to 30% tonight. He’s averaging 1.09 DKFP per minute and played 39 minutes on Sunday. He will likely approach 40 in this one. He’s a tad too cheap for the expected role and playing time.
Other Options – Cade Cunningham ($7,800), Bradley Beal ($7,300), D’Angelo Russell ($7,300), Austin Reaves ($7,000), Jaden Ivey ($6,700)
Value
Dennis Schroder, Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics ($4,800) – In his first game as a member of the Nets, Schroder played 27 minutes off the bench and contributed 15 points, 12 assists, three rebounds and three treys while shooting 6-of-13 from the field. That was good for 38.8 DKFP. The usage rate was a robust 26.1% and he should continue leading the second unit. The matchup is a difficult one, as the Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the league, but Schroder is intimately familiar with them, having faced them four times this season with the Raptors. He went for 23.25, 42.25, 34 and 24.25 DKFP in those contests. Granted, he was starting and playing over 30 minutes, but the usage rate was lower. He will be facing the Celtics’ second unit now and garnering a higher usage rate.
Other Options – Malik Monk ($5,800), Monte Morris ($3,000)
Forward
Stud
Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($7,100) – There are so many appealing options to pay up for at forward tonight, and all are priced and projected similarly. There’s a center I want to build my lineups around tonight, though, so I don’t think I can get to any of them. So Franz it is. He has been on quite the heater recently, scoring over 30 points in three of the last four games, translating to 48.75, 58.25 and 49.25 DKFP. I don’t expect that to continue, especially since the Thunder are an excellent defensive team. My expectations are for Franz to do what he usually does, which is score in the 30-DKFP range. If the heater continues, though, I won’t object.
Other Options – Kevin Durant ($9,800), LeBron James ($9,600), Jayson Tatum ($9,500)
Value
Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($3,400) – Many will likely select Jaime Jaquez tonight, and I get it. He will likely start and play 28 to 30 minutes. He hasn’t been good lately, though, and has exceeded point expectations only 20% of the time this season. He is averaging 0.81 DKFP per minute on the season. Isaac likely won’t play more than 20 minutes, but he’s averaging 1.06 DKFP per minute and just went for 30.5 DKFP in 26 minutes during an overtime game. The most likely outcome is that both score somewhere in the high teens, but Isaac is $1,100 cheaper and just displayed the upside he possesses.
Other Options – Caleb Martin ($5,000), Ausar Thompson ($4,900), Simone Fontecchio ($4,700), Jaime Jaquez ($4,500), Jalen Wilson ($3,700)
Center
Stud
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns ($10,000) – Sabonis is the guy I’m building around tonight. He has triple-doubled in the last two games and in four of the last five. He’s played at least 40 minutes in three of the last five games and will normally end up in the high 30s. He’s put up at least 55 DKFP in seven of the last eight games with four of those over 60. There are a couple of players who have higher ceilings, but I think Sabonis has the highest floor tonight.
Other Options – Anthony Davis ($10,100), Bam Adebayo ($8,300), Rudy Gobert ($7,200)
Value
Kevin Love, Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks ($3,600) – Love usually plays in the teens because anything over 20 and Love hurts. That may be a necessity tonight, though, due to all the injuries for the Heat. On the season, Love has played at least 20 minutes 13 times. He’s gone over 20 DKFP in 12 of those contests with 10 of those over 30 and a high of 40.5.
Other Options – Jonathan Isaac ($3,400)
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $350K Big Jam [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
