Jason Crowe Jr. followed a 3-for-18 night against Saint Louis with 34 points against SIUE, a Missouri freshman record, and that rather neatly captures November basketball. The talent is obvious. Figuring out how much of it survives an opponent with comparable athletes takes longer. Missouri and Marquette arrive in Chicago at 2-1, each having lost its first serious examination, with Crowe now facing Shaka Smart’s pressure and Nigel James Jr. trying to recover from a scoreless trip to Michigan. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college basketball game between the Marquette Golden Eagles and the Missouri Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Marquette vs. Missouri prediction, preview
James missed all 11 shots in that 84-70 loss, committed four turnovers and played only 18 minutes. Colin Porter rescued some offense with 21 points off the bench, including five threes, while Adrien Stevens drilled four more. Even with those two shooting 9-for-15 from deep, Marquette finished with 43.7 eFG%. Inside the arc, the Golden Eagles went 13-for-38. Against Missouri’s length, James has to draw a second defender and move the ball before the help swallows his drive; another afternoon of contested finishes leaves an awful lot riding on Porter’s jumper.
Missouri can complicate that work with Bryson Tiller and Toni Bryant, although the Tigers have already demonstrated how size and defensive execution can diverge. Saint Louis buried 14-of-25 threes in its 90-84 win, repeatedly punishing a defense that allowed 24 assists. Marquette’s perimeter shooting has been considerably less convincing through three games, around 30% on an offense taking nearly 45% of its shots from three. I expect Missouri to survive more of those possessions, provided its bigs finish them. Royce Parham has collected at least four offensive rebounds in consecutive games, and Marquette’s early 40 ORB% makes a lazy box-out expensive.
At the other end, Missouri’s 62 assists against 22 turnovers should force Marquette to defend longer than it would prefer. Those totals include two comfortable home wins, but the Tigers committed only 10 turnovers against Saint Louis, too. Marquette forced 15 Michigan turnovers and still managed just two fast-break points; recovering the ball has been easier than turning it into a layup. Crowe’s decisions matter more here than another attempt to replicate Monday’s scoring eruption. With Tiller capable of stepping outside, he has somewhere to send the ball when Smart’s defenders converge.
Missouri vs. Marquette pick, best bet
Mark Mitchell’s availability remains unresolved following the nose injury that ended his SIUE appearance in the opening minute. He scored 21 against Saint Louis, and losing his ability to create through contact would place considerably more responsibility on Crowe. That uncertainty keeps me away from the side.
For the total, Missouri’s 43.6 3P% needs some restraint: Tiller and Kennard Davis Jr. have each hit half their threes after shooting below 33% last season. Marquette can attack the offensive glass, and a close finish could bring late free throws. At 154.5, though, I prefer the under with Missouri protecting the ball and Marquette still struggling to finish possessions against length. There’s enough scoring talent for a lively game, but perhaps not an explosive one.
Best bet: Under 154.5 (-112)
Projected score: Missouri 76, Marquette 73
