The Sunday Slip: NFL best bets, picks, predictions for 11/15/26

Good November morning! It just smells like football out there today; go spin a spiral with a pal, will you? Time for Kirk Cousins to unleash Justin Jefferson, methinks.

Below is my full betting slip for today’s loaded Week 10 NFL slate, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of all of most of these already published, if you’re interested in more in-depth analysis. This is both a comprehensive round-up and an at-a-glance preview. Why just be one thing when you can be both?

Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all preseason and fantasy draft kit content—as well as plenty of NFL betting goodies—all season long.

Dan Johnson’s full Week 10 NFL betslip

1:00 p.m. ET

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Best bet: Chiefs -3 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Rashee Rice over 5.5 receptions (-102)† | Stake: 1u

Andy Reid has been getting Patrick Mahomes through games with quick throws. Mahomes has averaged five air yards per attempt or fewer in four straight starts; Rashee Rice has drawn 20.8% of the targets over his last two, with a 2.47-yard aDOT. Atlanta allows 82.1% completions within 10 yards of the line. Josh Downs can take some targets, but Rice’s short work makes six catches attractive near even money, especially with right tackle Jaylon Moore out.

Kenneth Walker is out, Jaydn Ott remains questionable, and Emmett Johnson’s workload is still a projection. Atlanta can answer through Bijan Robinson against a front missing Peter Woods and Omarr Norman-Lott. Michael Penix has to repair the difficult downs, though: he went 1-for-9 under pressure last week, and Atlanta has converted 12 of 46 third downs over four games. Mahomes gets a secondary adjusting to Jessie Bates’ departure. At a flat three, his ability to finish those possessions wins me over.

Projected score: Chiefs 27, Falcons 20.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Best bet: Browns +4.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Nico Collins under 61.5 receiving yards (-113)† | Stake: 1u

Cleveland can make C.J. Stroud work harder after he dismantled the Chargers. The Browns play man on 43.4% of snaps; Stroud averages 6.9 YPA against those coverages. Houston’s 36.4% rushing success rate gives Cleveland little reason to back off. Guard Keylan Rutledge is out, with tackle Trent Brown and guard Wyatt Teller questionable. Nico Collins has drawn just 14.3% of Houston’s targets, with three deep targets, over his last four games. His recent work leaves me leaning under 61.5.

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s absence could send more throws Collins’ way. Stroud can also score through Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz without Collins dominating. Deshaun Watson returns to an offense that has allowed 38 sacks, but Houston loses Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair, with Will Anderson Jr. questionable. Harold Fannin Jr. can turn Watson’s short throws into gains against those replacements. Cleveland has enough of an answer to take 4.5, even with Stroud favored to win the game.

Projected score: Texans 24, Browns 20.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Best bet: Packers -2.5 (-120) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Justin Jefferson 80+ receiving yards (-130) | Stake: 1u

Jordan Love gets a sturdier pocket for his second crack at Brian Flores. Green Bay allowed pressure on 33.8% of dropbacks in Weeks 4–9, down from 44.7% over the first three. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden combined for 242 yards in the opener. Minnesota has since held passers to 21-of-57 on throws traveling 10-plus yards, with seven interceptions. Love will have to earn his big completions; the improved blocking makes laying less than a field goal tolerable.

Kirk Cousins should rescue some of Justin Jefferson’s wasted work after Monday’s three catches on 11 targets. Jefferson averaged 98.9 receiving yards across 54 games with Cousins, and Micah Parsons is out. Eighty is reachable even if Minnesota struggles to finish. Cousins has had one week to reconnect with this offense; T.J. Hockenson and Jauan Jennings are out, while Jordan Addison’s thumb leaves him a game-time decision. Green Bay has the more settled passing attack to win the late possessions.

Projected score: Packers 24, Vikings 20.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Best bet: Dolphins +4.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Ollie Gordon II 80+ rushing yards (+107) | Stake: 1u

Ollie Gordon II can make Kyle McCord’s first start manageable. Indianapolis allows 137 rushing yards per game and 4.9 YPC, and DeForest Buckner has been traded. Leading Miami’s backfield since Week 3, Gordon has reached 80 yards in three of his last five. Miami has to replace center Aaron Brewer, a risk I’ll take at plus money. The Colts’ gentle pass rush (31.3% pressure rate) also leaves McCord a chance to complete the throws that extend Gordon’s afternoon.

Indianapolis has averaged a dreadful 23.3 yards per drive over four games. Daniel Jones hasn’t reached seven yards per attempt in any start; Keenan Allen, Josh Downs and guard Quenton Nelson have since departed. Tyler Warren’s 17 targets over two games identify an answer underneath, and Miami losing Zach Sieler helps Jonathan Taylor. Those gains can win Indianapolis the game. With Jones trying to finish drives through that depleted passing attack, I’d rather take Miami’s 4.5 than count on both defenses to protect an under.

Projected score: Colts 20, Dolphins 17.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Best bet: Panthers +1.5 (-105) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Bryce Young over 36.5 pass attempts (-117)† | Stake: 1u

Bryce Young found a way to hurry without abandoning the downfield throws. Against Denver, he released the ball in a season-low 2.56 seconds and threw for 276 yards on 39 attempts. New Orleans allows 7.8 YPA. Young has topped 36.5 attempts in four of five games, and Carolina passes on 64.2% of plays. The Saints have 13 sacks over three games; Young’s quicker decisions, with guard Damien Lewis cleared, give Carolina a response to that rush.

Tyler Shough has the less settled protection, with tackle Taliese Fuaga and center Erik McCoy out. Carolina sacks opponents on only 4.3% of dropbacks, though, and Mike Jackson remains on injured reserve. Chris Olave just caught seven of 12 targets for 98 yards; Shough can attack those replacement defenders. Both teams average at least 66 offensive plays, leaving Young room for 37 attempts in a close game. I favor his chances to finish the extra drive Carolina needs to win, and will take the 1.5.

Projected score: Panthers 27, Saints 24.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Best bet: Jets +7.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: James Cook over 91.5 rushing yards (-111)† | Stake: 1u

James Cook ground out 107 yards on 31 carries against Minnesota. New York allows backs 113.2 rushing yards per game and has lost Trevin Wallace, giving Buffalo reason to hand Cook another busy afternoon. Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson are cleared; Spencer Brown remains doubtful. The Bills have finished 23 of 33 red-zone trips with touchdowns. Josh Allen should turn those runs into a lead.

Geno Smith gets Garrett Wilson back after clearing concussion protocol; Omar Cooper Jr. and Adonai Mitchell are expected to play but remain questionable. Buffalo allows a league-high 143.3 second-half passing yards per game. Adding Amani Hooker could improve that coverage, and New York’s 11 touchdowns on 27 red-zone visits make chasing points precarious. I’ll take the touchdown and the hook with Smith’s receiving group coming together. Cook can run deep into the fourth quarter while the Jets find enough completions to close the margin.

Projected score: Bills 31, Jets 24.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Best bet: Jaguars -10.5 (-115) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Parker Washington over 60.5 receiving yards (-114)† | Stake: 1u

Tennessee has to tackle Parker Washington after Trevor Lawrence finds him inside. Washington runs 44% of his routes from the slot and averages 3.50 YPRR there; the Titans allow the sixth-most slot receiving yards. Lawrence averages 8.6 yards per attempt this season, Tennessee concedes 8.0. Washington dropped chances in Baltimore and caught two of seven targets for 61 yards. There’s room beyond 60.5 against this coverage, although a big Jacksonville lead could cut off his late targets.

Cam Ward has a better answer now that Tennessee is playing faster. The Titans used no-huddle on 36% of neutral-script snaps over two games; Ward averages 7.1 YPA without a huddle, against 5.7 otherwise. Jacksonville will rest newcomers Jessie Bates and Jordan Davis, too. Losing Carnell Tate and left guard Peter Skoronski makes that faster offense harder to operate against Jacksonville’s third-ranked pressure rate. Lawrence should separate while Ward fights to string first downs together.

Projected score: Jaguars 31, Titans 17.

4:05 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Best bet: Under 38.5 (-102) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Konata Mumpfield over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)† | Stake: 1u

The Rams scored 16 against Arizona in their first meeting, and Matthew Stafford has averaged 6.4 YPA over six games. Now he loses Puka Nacua alongside Davante Adams, with guard Steve Avila and Terrance Ferguson also out. Sean McVay can turn to Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Konata Mumpfield caught five passes for 105 yards across Weeks 2–3 without Nacua; he can reach 29 here, although Tutu Atwell has outtargeted him in the last two games.

Carson Beck starts his NFL career behind replacement center Hayden Conner and without Michael Wilson. Trey McBride can advance the short throws, but Los Angeles allows 6.4 YPA and only 31.6% on third down. McVay expects Myles Garrett to play, with his workload still uncertain. Arizona’s banged-up front could let the Rams run into quick scores. I’m accepting that risk because Stafford’s depleted offense has its own drive-killing problems, while Beck has to finish against a defense allowing touchdowns on just 15 of 38 scoring plays.

Projected score: Rams 24, Cardinals 10.

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders

Best bet: Seahawks -6.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Zach Charbonnet over 64.5 rushing yards (-114)† | Stake: 1u

Fernando Mendoza gets an awful welcome: Mike Macdonald-led defenses have held rookie starters to 4.9 YPA across nine games. Seattle allows 5.5 this season. Klint Kubiak also asks Mendoza to work under center after only six such dropbacks across three college seasons. Brock Bowers can help him find quick completions, and Leonard Williams’ absence softens Seattle’s front. I still expect the Seahawks to force the rookie into too many difficult passing downs.

While Mendoza tries to settle in, Zach Charbonnet can wear on a defense allowing the highest rushing success rate and fourth-highest explosive-run rate over five games. He took 16 carries for 77 yards last week. Jadarian Price shares the work. Left tackle Charles Cross is out, and guard Quenton Nelson must wait for his Seattle debut; those missing blocks strain both bets. Charbonnet can still reach 65 against these run fits. Drew Lock has no game designation; I trust Seattle’s rushing advantage to spare him a passing duel.

Projected score: Seahawks 24, Raiders 13.

4:25 p.m. ET

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Best bet: 49ers -3.5 (-115) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown (-110) | Stake: 1u

Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey should spend plenty of time in Dallas territory. San Francisco averages 37 yards per possession, the Cowboys allow 35.2, and the 49ers have finished 22 of 26 red-zone visits with touchdowns. Dallas has also surrendered 11 runs of 20-plus yards. Deebo Samuel is cleared to return. Trent Williams’ questionable shoulder makes the protection less certain. I’m comfortable laying 3.5 with that rushing matchup.

Dak Prescott can make this lively through CeeDee Lamb, who has drawn 18 red-zone targets and caught five touchdowns there. Renardo Green, Deommodore Lenoir and Upton Stout are questionable; Jake Ferguson’s absence could send more of Prescott’s throws Lamb’s way. The 49ers have allowed no 20-yard runs, making Prescott’s throws the more promising way to answer. Dallas can finish through Javonte Williams near the goal line, the biggest threat to Lamb’s touchdown. Lamb’s established scoring-area work and Dallas’ need to chase Purdy make -110 playable.

Projected score: 49ers 34, Cowboys 27.

8:20 p.m. ET — Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Best bet: Bengals -3.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Player prop: Jaylen Warren over 64.5 rushing yards (-113)† | Stake: 1u

Pittsburgh held Joe Burrow to 76 yards on 15 attempts against Cover 3 in their first meeting. Against two-high looks, he completed 17 of 20 for three touchdowns. The Steelers can change that mix, but Burrow arrives with 16 touchdown passes over four games and an offense converting 53.6% of third downs. He’s playing magnificent football. Pittsburgh has allowed touchdowns on just 11 of 31 scoring plays; I’m holding Cincinnati at 27, still enough to cover 3.5.

Jaylen Warren can run Pittsburgh into this. He rushed 17 times for 127 yards in the first meeting and topped 100 in both games before the bye; Cincinnati has conceded 11 runs of 20-plus yards. Rico Dowdle’s return has cut Warren’s backfield-touch share to 54.6% in their last game together. Sixty-five yards remains reasonable against this front. Aaron Rodgers faces the harder recovery when runs fail: he averages 5.4 YPA against blitzes, and Cincinnati increased its man coverage and pressure during the first meeting.

Projected score: Bengals 27, Steelers 20.