Two years after Vanderbilt toppled Alabama in Nashville and hauled the goalposts toward the Cumberland River, Kalen DeBoer returns with another quarterback question. Keelon Russell injured his ankle against LSU and remained listed as probable Friday, but Austin Mack is expected to make his first career start while Russell rests. The Tide hope to have their usual starter available if needed. Preparing for both quarterbacks is a rather different proposition for Clark Lea’s defense. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Vanderbilt vs. Alabama prediction, preview
Mack followed DeBoer from Washington and knows Ryan Grubb’s offense, yet he has thrown only four passes this season. He’ll inherit receivers capable of stretching a vulnerable secondary: Rico Scott has caught 31 passes for 501 yards and three touchdowns. Vanderbilt has allowed opponents to succeed on 44.3% of offensive plays, and Alabama has scored touchdowns on 30 of 37 trips inside the 20. Even an inexperienced starter could put this total under immediate strain if the Commodores surrender short fields.
Alabama’s protection and rushing production give Vanderbilt a way to fight back. The Tide managed 71 rushing yards against Texas A&M and 82 at LSU, averaging 2.8 per carry across those two games. They’ve also lost tight end Josh Ford for the season, placing more blocking responsibility on Danny Lewis Jr. and Jay Lindsey. Mack’s comfort with the system will be tested quickly if first-down runs leave him staring at obvious passing situations.
Lea’s defenders produced seven tackles for loss and three sacks in their 25-23 win at Mississippi State, their most disruptive SEC performance of the season. He reshuffled the secondary for that game, moving Martel Hight to receiver and starting Cayden Daniels opposite Jordan Matthews at corner. Safety Mason Lewis responded with 10 tackles and two pass breakups. The Bulldogs were missing quarterback Kamario Taylor, though, and Vanderbilt must now replace injured edge defender Edwin Kolenge. Brian Allen Jr. sits atop the depth chart in his place.
Freshman quarterback Jared Curtis protected the ball against Mississippi State, completing 17 of 27 throws for 168 yards without an interception. Vanderbilt leaned hard on Sedrick Alexander, Makhilyn Young and Jamezell Lassiter, who combined for 139 yards on 38 carries, and held the ball for 39:55. Alexander found little room to breathe: His 21 attempts produced 59 yards, with successful gains on 28.6% of those carries. Alabama has allowed an opponent-adjusted -0.06 EPA per rush, third-best nationally. That is a brutal next assignment for the Commodores’ blockers.
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt pick, best bet
Vanderbilt introduced Mitchell Smith at strong guard last week and rotated CJ Williams with Beau Johnson at strong tackle. Mississippi State still recorded nine tackles for loss. Alabama edge rushers Devan Thompkins and Yhonzae Pierre, owners of a combined 9.5 sacks, can force Curtis away from the patient possessions Lea would prefer. Curtis has thrown eight interceptions on 224 attempts; another giveaway near midfield could hand Mack the kind of opportunity that wrecks an under.
LSU exposed Alabama for 457 yards last week, although four failed fourth-down attempts helped the Tide hold the Tigers to 13 points. Curtis and Junior Sherrill can move Vanderbilt into scoring range, but I expect Alabama’s front to make touchdowns harder to collect. With Mack’s workload uncertain and the Tide’s own rushing game scuffling against their last two SEC opponents, I’m taking the under while acknowledging the danger of Alabama’s red-zone efficiency.
Best bet: Under 47.5 (-102)
Projected score: Alabama 27, Vanderbilt 14.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt vs. Alabama u47.5 total points scored (+100)
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