Midwest high-majors will meet this afternoon in Des Moines. Creighton (2-1) will be looking to re-establish itself as a Big East contender this season. Iowa (2-1) is off to a decent start, hoping to recapture the magic from last season’s Elite Eight run. Sunday’s matchup will serve as a litmus test for both of these programs going forward.
Iowa enters this one as 4.5-point favorites (-110) over Creighton. The total is set at 145.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Sunday’s neutral site game between the Bluejays and Hawkeyes.
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Creighton vs. Iowa prediction, preview
Tuesday’s defeat against Kansas State was disappointing on a number of levels for the Bluejays. They surrendered 89 points, allowing the Wildcats to shoot 46.7% from three-point range. That level of effort will need to improve for new head coach Alan Huss. It’s not the tallest squad either, ranking 192nd in average height (77.4″). Still, Creighton owns the nation’s 48th-best adjusted defensive efficiency (98.4), so there’s reason to expect a better showing on Sunday.
Offensively, Creighton is carried by one of the Big East’s better duos. South Florida transfer Wes Enis (19.7 PPG) and San Diego State transfer BJ Davis (15.7 PPG) have done most of the heavy lifting on that end of the floor. No other player on the active roster is scoring in the double-digit range on a nightly basis. That’s not to say this roster isn’t deep, even if it lacks complimentary scorers. Now that Brody Robinson is eligible to play, Huss can go eight or nine deep with his rotations.
This is a far different Iowa roster compared to last season’s NCAA Tournament underdog. High-octane scorer Bennett Stirtz is gone, along with several other key pieces. Regardless, head coach Ben McCollum hasn’t altered his game plan. On offense, the Hawkeyes wield a patient, but effective, scoring attack. They’re 364th in adjusted tempo (65.5), but 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency (117.7). Stirtz’s absence has hurt this squad’s potential from three-point range. Still, Iowa has managed to knock down an impressive 68.1% of its two-point field goal attempts. To boot, the Hawkeyes rank 18th in offensive rebounding percentage (41.8%).
In many ways, these two teams have been built in a similar fashion. McCollum’s crew relies heavily on Cooper Koch. The sophomore leads all Hawkeyes players with 16.3 points per game. Koch, usually a knockdown shooter, is only hitting 33.3% of his three-point attempts. It’s likely just a matter of time until he starts draining more shots from long distance. He’s trailed closely by Ty’Reek Coleman, putting up 15.8 PPG on 64.7% shooting from the field. However, much like Creighton, no other Iowa players are averaging double-digits this season.
Creighton vs. Iowa pick, best bet
In a battle between two sides that play similar brands of basketball, I’m leaning towards the Hawkeyes tonight. Creighton is on the right track towards a return to the NCAA Tournament. However, a Bluejays offense carried primarily by two players could struggle against an above-average defense. In addition, the Hawkeyes are more dangerous when it comes to shooting and rebounding this season. A bigger, more physical Iowa team should manage to earn a win this afternoon in Des Moines.
Best Bet: Iowa -4.5 (110)
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