Only three weeks are left in the college football regular season. That places added importance on this week’s games for schools looking to earn a postseason spot. Still, with opportunity comes added pressure. In a year as chaotic as this, there’s a good chance we see some underdogs shock the college football world on Saturday.
Let’s break down two plus money picks on DraftKings Sportsbook that could pull off an upset in Week 11.
Best CFB Upset Picks for Week 11
USC over Indiana (+270)
A bit of a long shot to kick off this one, but it makes sense on paper. #9 Indiana deserves its flowers as the defending champions. Still, Fernando Mendoza isn’t walking through those doors. The Josh Hoover era in Bloomington has been a mixed bag at best. The further into Indiana’s middling Big Ten slate, the worse this offense has looked. IU’s quarterback has thrown for a combined 200 passing yards over his last two contests. In addition, star running back Turbo Richard (shoulder) has been ruled out this weekend.
This line continues to grow larger, going from 8.5 over 9.5 this week. At a certain point, there’s simply too much value with the underdogs. We just saw USC take down #20 Ohio State by two scores back in late October. The Buckeyes defeated Indiana earlier this season in convincing fashion. Transitive property alone isn’t the only reason to like the Trojans. Jayden Maiava is an elite quarterback, leading the Big Ten in passing yards (2,524) and touchdowns (20) this season. The Hoosiers are stingy on defense, but this will be the best signal caller they’ve faced this season. As a unit, USC ranks fourth in the conference in yards (423.8) and points (32.4) per game.
The Trojans aren’t the most intimidating defensive unit, especially in the secondary. However, as previously mentioned, Indiana hasn’t shown a knack for stretching the field. The Hoosiers have scored 20 points or fewer in three of their previous four contests. Two of those games came at home, as well. Given the collective talent on this USC roster, the visitors are worth some consideration as nearly double-digit dogs.
Florida over Kentucky (+130)
Kentucky still remains in position to reach its first-ever College Football Playoff. With that being said, you’d be forgiven for expressing some skepticism. The Wildcats suffered a humiliating 34-6 defeat against #8 Tennessee last weekend, raising doubts about their chances of competing for a national title. The two signature ranked wins for this program were one-point, overtime victories over #17 South Carolina and #21 LSU. That’s not to diminish those efforts, but it’s fair to say UK could easily have four losses right now.
Florida hasn’t been very consistent, showing flashes but rarely putting it all together for a full sixty minutes. Regardless, UF has more than enough talent to deliver a massive upset. After all, we’ve already seen this group take down #6 Texas and #19 Ole Miss. It’s fair to express some doubt when it comes to this pick. The Gators have notched a combined 15 points over their past two games. Still, that came against stifling Georgia and Oklahoma defenses. In comparison, Kentucky ranks 12th in the SEC with 365.6 yards allowed per game. The Wildcats are also surrendering a mediocre 3.92 yards per rush attempt.
An inability to win inside of the trenches might prove fatal on Saturday. Florida’s offense revolves around Jadan Baugh, one of the nation’s elite running backs. Through nine games, the junior has churned out 836 yards and an SEC-best 14 touchdowns. As a unit, the Gators are gaining the conference’s fifth-most rushing yards per game (164.2). They’re also fifth in average time of possession (31:21 minutes). That ability to control the ball could make things difficult on a Kentucky squad that hasn’t displayed much explosiveness.
