Friday is an NBA Cup night. bringing colorful courts and some additional stakes to the hoops slate. As the group stage continues, two underachieving Eastern Conference playoff hopefuls face off in Miami. The Heat are hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers, but despite the talent on either side of the matchup, neither one of these teams are above .500. Both won their first game in their Cup group, though, so this game could have a big impact on how the standings shake out in the in-season tournament for them.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s Cavaliers vs. Heat matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cavaliers vs. Heat prediction, preview
It’s been a rough month for the Cavs thus far, going 2-4 in November to bring their record to 6-6 on the season. The two wins over their last six games came over the 76ers and Knicks, so it’s a positive that they’re perhaps looking better against good teams. The overall numbers for this team aren’t bad, either – they’re 12th in NETRTG at +2.1 – but they don’t look like a real competitor as of now given their recent form.
Cleveland is better on offense than on defense, averaging 116.4 PPG and ranking 10th in OFFRTG. The club is shooting 46.4% from the floor and is ninth in 3P% at 36.9%, taking the seventh-most attempts per game from beyond the arc. Predictably, Donovan Mitchell leads the team in scoring with 22.8 PPG, but he’ll need to shoulder a heavier load tonight with second-leading scorer and rebounder Evan Mobley ruled out. James Harden also seems to be regressing somewhat at age 37 with just 16.7 points and 5.6 assists a night, though he’s coming off a season-high 32 points last game. Rounding out the starting five are Peyton Watson (11.0 PPG) and Jarrett Allen (12.9 PPG, 8.3 REB). The Cavs also seem to have found a key piece in rookie Meleek Thomas, who’s posting 13.1 PPG and shooting 48.0% from three.
Defensively, the Cavaliers are allowing 114.3 PPG and are 16th in DEFRTG. Missing Mobley tonight hurts the outlook on the boards, but the team does rank seventh in rebounds per game with 45.7. They also rank eighth in opponent FG% at 44.6%.
The Heat entered the season with the highest of expectations after pushing their chips in this offseason, trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo. The results thus far have not been particularly encouraging, though, going 5-6 overall – and three of those wins came over the Clippers, Kings and Jazz. Overall, the club ranks 19th in NETRTG at -4.1, though it’s early enough that things could certainly improve.
Pushing the tempo is key to this Miami unit, which ranks second across the league in pace. That has the Heat 10th in scoring with 115.7 PPG, but they’re also just 20th in OFFRTG, so they’re still working out the kinks with this new-look roster. Antetokounmpo does look excellent with 27.7 points and 12.6 rebounds per game, also dishing out 5.2 assists in a ball-dominant role. He’s probable to play through a right wrist sprain tonight, so it sounds as though he’ll be suiting up. Fellow big man Bam Adebayo is second on the team in scoring and rebounding with 17.8 points and 8.4 boards, and Davion Mitchell has taken a leap with 16.5 points and a team-high 8.5 assists. However, Klay Thompson and Pelle Larsson play key roles as double-digit scorers, with both questionable to play this evening. As a team, Miami is shooting 46.2% overall and 33.6% from deep, but does rank second in assists per game with 28.7.
The Heat defense took a step back from its typically-stingy nature last season, and thus far, “Heat Culture” hasn’t shown its face. The 120.0 PPG allowed ranks 26th and the club falls 22nd in DEFRTG. Surprisingly, they’re only 22nd in rebounding with 41.9 boards a night, too.
Cavaliers vs. Heat pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Heat as a 2.5-point favorite at home tonight with -135 odds on the Moneyline. The Cavaliers are a +114 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 235.5 combined points.
This marks the first meeting between these teams this season, and it should be an interesting battle between playoff-caliber units that are yet to look like real contenders. The absence of Mobley will be massive for Cleveland, leaving the visitors without a DPOY-caliber big man to help slow down Antetokounmpo and Adebayo in the paint. Allen is still a capable defender underneath, but against this Miami frontcourt, he may be pressured all night long. Now, Thompson or Larsson missing this game would be a knock on the Heat’s scoring ability, but keep in mind that the Cavs will also need to find other sources of offense with Mobley and Sam Merrill both sidelined, too.
This feels like it could be something of a toss-up, but I’m inclined to bank on the over on this contest even with the injury concerns. Neither of these defenses have played particularly well this season, and Miami is weak against the three-pointer in particular, meaning we could see some increased volume from beyond the arc from Cleveland. The Cavs’ average game total sits at 230.8 PPG; the Heat’s comes in at 235.7. I expect these teams to push the tempo here and keep the points coming in a back-and-forth battle.
