SEC battles ACC this evening at the Dean E. Smith Center. Georgia (3-0) is a program on the rise, having reached the NCAA Tournament two seasons in a row. Still, a deep March Madness run has eluded this group during that stretch. Taking down a quality opponent would give the Bulldogs a massive early season resume boost. As for North Carolina (3-0), expectations are a bit subdued. The unranked Tar Heels will look to make their first major statement tonight under new head coach Michael Malone.
North Carolina enters this one as 4.5-point favorites (-105) over Georgia. The total is set at 164.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Bulldogs and Tar Heels.
Georgia vs. North Carolina prediction, preview
The Bulldogs have been a score-first team under current head coach Mike White. Last season, they ranked 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency (124.1). In addition, the program averaged just 15.3 seconds per possession, ninth-quickest in college basketball. High-scoring guard Blue Cain (16.0 PPG) is back in Athens, while fellow upperclassmen Marcus Millender and Kanon Catchings are also returning. Those three form a solid nucleus for UGA going forward, although the loss of Jeremiah Wilkinson, last year’s leading scorer, hurts. Big man Somto Cyril has also departed, leaving a major void at center.
White’s solution inside the paint came through the transfer portal. 6’11” James Scott’s numbers don’t jump off the page. He averaged just 3.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game last year with Ole Miss. Regardless, he’s an exceptional rim protector (1.3 BPG) and an efficient scorer. During his four seasons of college basketball, Scott is shooting 77.6% from the field. Internally, White also brings back Kareem Stagg. The 6’8″ forward is a former Top 100 recruit, and his production has already taken a leap. Through two games, Stagg is averaging 11.5 points.
It’s a new era in Chapel Hill. Former NBA champion Malone brings a new approach for this historic North Carolina program. Still, it’s never easy turning things around in year one. UNC’s unranked status heading into the season is proof of that. Regardless, an NCAA Tournament appearance is the bare minimum expectation for this group, and for good reason. There’s still a great deal of talent scattered across this roster.
The big name in the starting lineup is Terrence Brown, coming over this summer from Utah. The guard leads the Tar Heels with 16.3 points over three games. NC State transfer Matt Able has been terrific as well, averaging 11.7 points on 59/42/67 shooting splits. Down low, highly touted prospect Maximo Adams (11.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and shot-blocking machine Sayon Keita (2.3 BPG) have done a solid job so far. Returning big man Jarin Stevenson has had an impact as well. One area where North Carolina has done an exceptional job is ball control. UNC is responsible for a minuscule 12.0% turnover rate this season. That’s good enough for 12th-best among all Division I programs.
Georgia vs. North Carolina pick, best bet
The Bulldogs come into this one with more continuity across their roster, always a plus this early into the season. Still, it’s fair to wonder if White has enough talent in the front court compared to previous UGA squads. North Carolina has an average two-point attempt distance of 5.1 feet from the basket according to KenPom. In other words, the Tar Heels love taking shots inside of the paint. In comparison, Georgia’s opponents are shooting 51.0% from two-point range. That could spell trouble for the visitors tonight inside of a hostile Chapel Hill environment.
